Tuesday, March 24, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Uptick Rule, The Dollar, & More

Posted: 24 Mar 2009 05:58 AM PDT

Trading
Good morning. Premarket futures are under pressure following yesterday's big rally.

Top stories in focus include news that SEC officials are working on an updated version of the uptick rule, Goldman Sachs is interested in buying Barclays iShares unit and is planning to give back its TARP money soon, China calls for the creation of a new currency to replace the dollar as the world's standard, retail chain store sales fell, and Goldman's Abby Joseph Cohen sees fair value for the S&P 500 in excess of 900.

Premarket gainers: SEED, ALDN, FMCN, BIDU, SONC, BPL, SFI, HA, ODP, RAX, IM, ALU, NM, BX, MRVL, VVUS, & DRYS.

Premarket losers: HUBG, NRGY, AEG, NWL, PR, AAUK, JBHT, AES, FNM, FRE, C, BAC, AIG, ING, SINA, BBI, LTD, SIT, AKS, CPKI, VPHM, STLD, ERIC, FITB, AIG, & SSRI.

At 10:AM we have the State Street Investor Confidence Index and Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index. Bernanke & Geithner are also scheduled to testify on AIG.

Given the velocity of the upside recently, I can sense a commonly held view that we're only seeing another vicious bear market rally which is good. The more skepticism and doubt the better as long as the technicals continue to show improvement. That said, there have been only five other occurrences since 1990 where the market has closed up +6% or more and the next day the market is down 80% of the time. So, the key for the day will be simply to retest and hold the S&P 803 level on that pullback.

Go make it a great day!

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