Wednesday, March 18, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Press Your Luck

Posted: 18 Mar 2009 02:12 PM PDT

Overbought conditions presented little trouble as traders played another round of press your luck following the Fed.

S&P 500: 10 Day View

Ultra financials (UYG), real-estate (URE), russell 2000 value (RKH), and insurance (KIE) were big leaders out there along with a number of gold stocks.

In Monday's mailbag I targeted S&P 805 as a key level to watch and we wound up three points shy on an intraday basis. Again, if you are long and strong you have like what you're seeing out there although at the same time you'd have to be crazier than sack of weasels not to take a little off the table as we try to overcome another level of resistance into options expiration and the better-than-average tendency to see reversals from a post-Fed rally.

Perhaps being a crazy man is what you need to win in this market. Well, I can play that game as well as anyone, can't you?

Widest Discounts From Book Value

Posted: 18 Mar 2009 07:37 AM PDT

Book Values
One month ago, I provided a value screen with the goal of finding stocks that 1) have the widest discounts from their current book value and, 2) which have enough cash on their books to be able to survive although business hasn't been the best of late. Here's a quick performance update.

Since February 18th, this stock screen is up +13.93% (23 gainers & 12 losers). Over the same month, the S&P 500 fell -1.31%.

Interesting enough, if you instead waited to buy each of the stocks at the bottom close on Monday, March 9th, your returns would have improved to gain of +47.98% (36 gainers & 0 losers) in comparison to the +15.02% gain in the S&P 500.

Running the same exact stock screen this morning, 39 stocks were found.....[READ]

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Fed Day

Posted: 18 Mar 2009 05:57 AM PDT

Fed Day
Good morning. Premarket futures are under some sell pressure this Fed Day.

Top headlines include a higher than expected CPI, a jump in mortgage applications, Bank of America's CEO said that his firm may pay back bailout in 2010, and IBM is in talks to buy Sun Microsystems.

Premarket gainers: JAVA, LEA, FITB, BJGP, ETFC, SIRI, DRI, AIG, C, BAC, SEED, FEED, LEAP, HCBK, LIZ, STSA, SBH, MET, PQ, ATPG, PDE, AIR, APL, HOV, & STEM.

Premarket losers: SDTH, MRX, HERO, CRZO, CLI, RTP, PUK, AMLN, HBS, ALJ, EGLE, MGM, IBM, ISRG, CLWR, ALC, HST, GRA, BKR, KWK, MTW, BPOP, COMS, & CLR.

At 10:30 we have the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report and AIG's CEO gets grilled on Capitol Hill. This is another Fed day and while the FOMC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will be looking for anything new in the statement.

We are now overbought and since trading any Fed day is a royal pain, look for traders to sit back and reposition ahead of options expiration. Go make it a great day!

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