The Kirk Report |
Posted: 07 Jan 2009 02:03 PM CST As usual, the annual membership survey has provided some good food for thought. In that survey, one of the questions I asked was: "What would you say is the most important thing you've learned about investing and/or trading in 2008?" Here are some of the replies I received:
* This is only part one of five. Many more lessons will be posted at the members' only website. |
Posted: 07 Jan 2009 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are under pressure following the two reports on the job market. According to ADP, nonfarm employment fell by -693K from November to December which was far worse than consensus of a loss of -493K. In addition, it was the worst December for layoffs on record according to Challenger Gray & Christmas. Both reports come ahead of Friday's employment report. In other news, Meredith Whitney warns that banks may have to raise even more capital in 2009, mortgage applications fell -8.2% from a week ago, Obama and House Financial Services' Barney Frank reach an agreement in principle to release the second half of TARP funds, GM says it has enough loans to cover its worst-case forecast, Intel cut its 4Q forecast, Alcoa slashes jobs, and European Central bankers and government officials note the possibility of a prolonged recession. Premarket gainers: LJPC, ICOG, DXCM, CPY, TSEM, NTCT, BBI, SWKS, IWOV, PLCM, FDO, MON, MYL, KEM, MPG, ES, FDO, FFIV, AKS, KBR, MU, RMBS, CAJ, & HMC. Premarket losers: SAY, AY, GU, IBN, IXYS, SMSC, AAUK, AA, ZOLT, CHS, CHU, TTM, CTSH, MCHP, ACAS, INFY, ERTS, EGLE, SOLF, DRYS, TITN, TBSI, WYNN, QI, & MEA. At 10:35 we have the weekly petroleum status report and Thomas Hoenig is scheduled to speak at 1:PM. However, this morning's data on employment will remain front and center and we'll see if that makes much of a difference to the overall bullish tone we've seen in recent days. The good news is that if the market can digest this data today without too much technical damage (again S&P 900 or above) and lower expectations into Friday, that will at least take some of the risk out of another bad jobs report on Friday since now everyone will probably expect the worst. After all, I doubt those putting money to work recently didn't expect to see more bad news on the jobs front, so it will be interesting to see how much or how little this news pressures the market from a sentiment perspective. Overall, we're still well into overbought territory and choppy action is the most likely scenario in my view, so be selective out there with those entry points as a little patience right now will likely open up better trades in due time. Have a great day! |
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