Tuesday, February 16, 2010

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

18 Days

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 02:43 PM PST

We now know the answer to how many days it would take to reclaim the 20 day moving average in the S&P 500:

S&P 500: 18 Days

Last Wednesday I started a contest asking for people to submit their best guess to how many days longer the S&P would stay below its 20 day moving average. With today's strong advance, we totaled 18 days which is well within Jeff Saut's "selling stampede" concept and one day before I thought we would do it (I guessed 19 days last Wednesday).

As such, it turns out I was the winner in the contest as I was the closest among 28 people who submitted their best guess with the median guess coming in at 32 days below the 20 day ma. Clearly, this up move was not something the majority expected last week which is also why we saw it happen.

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