The Kirk Report

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• Sparklers
• ETFs Up +50% Since March 31st
• Madoff & M&A Monday

Sparklers Posted: 29 Jun 2009 11:52 AM PDT The End of the Recession? Economically speaking, we're closer to bottom Are we there yet? Not quite Many challenges are still ahead The financial crisis in pictures New norm, bad norm More misery for U.S. housing? The spa indicator & golf indicator Results from another stock market poll The Dumb Money indicator remains bullish to an extreme degree Recent sentiment trends are encouraging Investors are moving in lockstep like never before Where are we in the annual optimism cycle? This rally has been stronger than most We appear to continue in a broad trading range between May's lows and June's highs MACD divergence signals Strong IPO performance is definitely much more indicative of a bull market than a bear market What is hyping the market? Planning stages for Stimulus II Bailout tracker! Has the finance industry captured our government? Without valuation gains, ongoing borrowing pushes the U.S. deeper in the red America The Unsustainable? Inflation - the real threat to sustained recovery Apples and Inflation Are predominant fears over rising interest rates overblown? The case against inflation Where's Volcker? Another roast for Bernanke Mystery of fake U.S. Bonds fuels web theories Wall Street's largest bond-trading firms say the worst may be over for investors in Treasuries Bonds vs. Stocks The case for corporate bonds Timing the endgame in government bonds A seasonal factor for biotechs All bets are off if we end up in a hot conflict with North Korea Boehner's thoughts on the climate bill Coal's new friends Why so many green jobs are sprouting in Colorado U.S. companies seek new tax havens Gold, green and the fate of the dollar 5 reasons why this could be a hot summer for gold & silver Is gold an inflation hedge? Where's all the gold? Why basic material ETFs could be the next superstars European economic confidence rises more than expected Coordination falls away as the global crisis abates The big money flow - emerging market hedge funds surge 5 things to know about Indonesia ETF Four reasons to get bullish on Japan Will small emerging country ETFs be rewarded for forecasted growth? China's predicament China reiterates call for new world reserve currency How will the 908 billion yuan be spent in 2009? Fear the dark side of China's lending surge Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth? Global property slide may be long The most expensive real estate markets in the world The big squeeze in Ivy League endowments After failing at the hedge fund racket, Ron Isana attempts to reinvent himself as a newsletter guru Top performing Russell stocks Head-and-shoulder patterns Telechart scans for Dave Landry's persistent pullbacks Five blue-chip stocks with revolutionary new products AFG's buy-sell list 5 stocks analysts have overlooked The Dow's 5 cheapest stocks Dow Theory's mid-year favorites 20% Dividend Yields? The 20 largest stock buybacks from the 1Q 2009 The most volatile stocks (watch those stops) Top 1000 World Banks 2009 JPMorgan CEO warns against too many regulators Goldman Sachs - the great American bubble machine A nice big loophole for GE What's in Capital One's wallet? Microsoft defends its empire Best Buy's next big step Palm investors should sweat The blowup at Eastman Kodak The risk of lottery plays Economists don't make good traders. Here's why! I've posted this before, but in case you haven't seen it - Dennis Gartman's trading rules How to trade trend and range-bound days in the market A crib sheet for government data Great resource - spreadsheet templates, calculators, and calendars Market timing crucial when buying ETFs Regulators urge caution on triple leveraged ETFs Will actively-managed ETFs soon replace funds? Preferred-stock ETFs shine Three simple steps for a successful retirement How to survive any economic downturn Are you cheating on your financial planner? 7 ways to avoid a Madoff moment New rules designed to make money funds safer do not go far enough How to determine which investments are not insured by the FDIC What happened to Michael Jackson's millions? The Descent into credit card debt How to make a budget and wipe out debt with Quicken Online How to put your money on autopilot Easy and secure group collaboration over email The thoughts of Chairman Green Powerful ways to improve your life "Most people, most of the time, all over the world, choose to go along. We vote with the tribe." - Roger Ebert This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

ETFs Up +50% Since March 31st Posted: 29 Jun 2009 07:09 AM PDT At quarter-end it is always interesting to see what some basic performance scans show up. Case in point, the ETFs which are up more than +50% since the closing price on March 31st: The top performer has been the Emerging Markets Bull 3X (EDC) with a +102% gain over this time frame: As we can see from its chart, we recently violated the ATR stop, got very oversold, and then bounced. But, we haven't take out those former highs and remain vulnerable for 1) another breakdown or 2) a lengthy sideways consolidation phase. If you look closely enough, you'll also see something I'm finding in quite a few charts of late - an ominous head-and-shoulders formation. Either way, this one should be on your radar as it may serve as a good tell for the overall market.

Madoff & M&A Monday Posted: 29 Jun 2009 05:52 AM PDT Good morning. We're set for a higher open at the start of this four-day trading week. News and data flow are on the slow side again, but there are a few noteworthy items to review including a plethora of merger & acquisition announcements. First off, we have M&A activity between consulting firms Towers Perrin Forster & Crosby and Watson Wyatt Worldwide, Enterprise and Teppco have announced a merger, Novartis is reportedly in talks to buy parts of Elan, Anglo American is in talks to sell a major investment stake to Aluminum Corp. of China, and Vodafone is considering a bid to buy T-Mobile UK. In other news, five more banks were seized by regulators, General Electric's CEO Immelt says cyclical downturn is now behind us, Obama's aid Romer is upbeat on US economy, late Friday the House passed the Climate & Energy bill, and the Honduran President is ousted in coup. Premarket gainers: DCGN, CYTR, EVTC, FTWR, EXP, SIRI, CFW, MNI, LEE, FULT, BPHX, MDRX, CAEI, TRW, FEED, KIRK, CSIQ, SPPI, SLM, FRE, FNSR, PCAR, DFS, JASO, CLR, SNY, ELN, & SNP. Premarket losers: RAE, HTM, HMPR, BIIB, DPTR, UEC, LEA, FCH, ARL, TLM, CTIC, SIMG, OPEN, SYUT, ALY, CRME, KOL, CHBT, SYMX, FNLC, & ZEP. While there will be plenty of economic data to consider later this week, for today there's nothing on the calendar. Instead, expect the focus of the day to be on this morning's M&A activity, Madoff's sentencing and preparing for Thursday's jobs report. Let's make it a great week!

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