Thursday, June 25, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Top Stock Picks For 2009

Posted: 25 Jun 2009 09:34 AM PDT

Stock Picks
One of the things I like to do around the middle of the year is to review some of the tracking lists that I create of those "top stock picks for 2009" that we hear so much around the start of each year. I enjoy this exercise because it it lends perspective on situations that have and haven't lived up to their high expectations with the benefit of the hindsight of the past six months.

One of my favorite tracking lists in this regard is the annual BloggingStocks poll which asked 75 advisors their "favorite stock for 2009." I like this list because it requires each advisor to also provide an simple explanation for each pick they provide.

In review of the performance so far of these picks, the overall list is currently up +10% year-to-date. The top five best performers are Teck Cominco Limited (TCK), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Freeport Mcmoran (FCX), E-House China Holdings Limited ADR (EJ), & PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO).

The bottom five worst performers are ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF), Emergent BioSolutions Inc (EBS), Fuel Systems Solutions Inc (FSYS), Ezcorp (EZPW) & Allegiant Travel (ALGT).

Now take a moment to read the analysis of each of these recommendations when the pick was made:

Top 5 Performers:

Bottom 5 Performers:

In your view, which analysis above surprised you the most and why? Do any of these recommendations (good or bad) still hold value? What were the key mistakes made so far? Is there anything common in the stocks that have outperformed the most?

When I started learning about stocks, this tracking and evaluation process with the benefit of some hindsight is something I did all of the time to learn and understand what it takes to pick the best stocks. Do this enough and you'll begin to see the same sort of patterns emerge year after year after year.