Tuesday, May 26, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report


Back In The Groove

Posted: 26 May 2009 07:32 AM PDT

On April 14th only 8% of ETFs were trading above their 200 day simple moving average. However, as of Friday's close, 39% are now trading above that level (here's the spreadsheet).

Let's now take a look at 10 of the "above 200 day MA" ETFs which have also performed the best during the month of May. Pay attention to the areas of the market highest represented within this group and their moving averages:

EPI

GDX

PIN

RSX

KOL

UGA

GUR

EWS

PGF

MOO

Needless to say, the emerging markets and commodities are back in the New York groove. Whether we see golden crosses (50 day moving average (purple line) crosses above the 200 day moving average (yellow line) will be something to keep an eye on over the short-term in most of these ETFs. Only the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has accomplished this task so far!

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The Last Week Of May

Posted: 26 May 2009 05:57 AM PDT

Good morning. Premarket futures have been volatile ahead of the open and are pointing slightly lower as there are very few market-moving headlines this morning. What negative bias we have is being blamed on North Korea's nuclear testing.

In other headlines, the market continues to prepare for a bankruptcy at GM, the Justice Department cracks down on corporate bribes, reports that mortgage modification programs are having trouble reaching their goals, and Goldman Sachs is apparently pounding the table on commodities and basic materials.

Premarket gainers: CYTK, ARUN, COIN, EMIS, OXGN, BBOX, UTHR, HEB, CTV, EMKR, MDVN, STSI, SHLD, FSYS, MBT, ANDE, GSOL, FEED, QGEN, BCRX, ATVI, ONNN, PALM, Q, VICL, ALTH, AAPL, CKR, CUBA, SEED, CEL, & NVAX.

Premarket losers: GM, ATAC, RRGB, LDK, ZUMZ, CIM, SLM, PSYS, IVN, CSIQ, OGXI, FSLR, AIG, OPEN, KKD, AAI, PSUN, ZZ, AUY, ARMH, PUK, DROOY, DB, STX, & CRM.

Along with the 9:AM S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, at 10:AM we have reports on Consumer Confidence, the State Street Investor Confidence Index, and the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index. A half-hour later the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey is due. Obama will also report Supreme Court Justice Nominee (Sonia Sotomayor) at 10:15.

Technically, the market needs to show some strength this week or risk much lower prices in the short-term. Simply holding the 20 day moving average line will be key as the market awaits comments from Einhorn and other hedge-fund titans this week and we see the return of end-of-the-month window dressing.

I hope your holiday was a good one. As with all four-day work weeks, this should prove to be a challenging one especially as we close out the month of May. Let's make it a great week!

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