Thursday, April 30, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Green Mountain & Screen Updates

Posted: 30 Apr 2009 11:19 AM PDT

In addition to daytrading that monster short-squeeze in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), I'm working on updating my stock screen machine for tomorrow's big monthly update.

GMCR

Fortunately, GMCR is in over half of my April stock screens (and filters) so we'll likely see a big performance boost as a result from today's big move. If all goes well, I'll have the final tally for all of the screens and filters after today's close.

Speaking of which, several have asked for performance updates for my book value screen and the enterprise value screen I shared in April. So far, much like the market, these screens continue to impress. In 10 trading days, the BV screen is up +13.17% (28 gainers & 11 losers and in 8 trading days the EV screen is up +14.47% (29 gainers & 5 losers). Not bad.

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A Plethora Of Earnings Reports

Posted: 30 Apr 2009 05:53 AM PDT

Good morning. On this last trading day of April, premarket futures are positive as investors sort through a plethora of earnings reports. Other than the big blowup in Sequenom (SQNM), most of the reports were better than expected.

Other than earnings, jobless claims, personal income & spending, and employment costs are also in focus. In addition, Congress has approved its budget plan for 2010, a Chrysler bankruptcy seems imminent, more than 100 firms have applied to participate in the Treasury's toxic-asset purchase program, and the FBI is reportedly investigating possible accounting violations at Freddie Mac.

Premarket gainers: GMCR, ARRS, FSLR, MGM, RBS, HGSI, CDNS, PCX, ICO, LVS, TNDM, DSCM, SKX, BARE, LYG, OI, CSUN, ESLR, SLE, AKAM, MPEL, SOLF, SOL, CSIQ, ACAS, JASO, AKAM, AGNC, AZ, ARRS, NOK, CTXS, CMCSA, HBC, C, LDK, AAUK, ICO, SPWRA, DRYS, EGLE, WYNN, & APWR.

Premarket losers: SQNM, JDSU, ULBI, EROC, FARO, ITRI, ABAX, ERIC, EK, CBRL, SAN, CI, SKS, HAR, FLEX, CAVM, AXTI, HAR, NTRI, FORM, & SVNT.

There's not much on today's calendar other than the 9:45 NAPM Chicago Business Barometer. The market will also be monitoring whether the bankruptcy cramdown bill gets passed by the Senate and the fate of Chrysler.

For some perspective, stocks are now poised for the biggest monthly gain since March 2000 and it is clear from the action that there is a broad willingness to take on more risk with the hopeful assumption that the worst is behind us.

Go make it a great day!

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