The Kirk Report

In The Rally We Trust Posted: 13 Apr 2009 10:02 AM PDT Equities focus on the positive Wall Street preps for earnings news Is that recovery we see? Is the rally on sound footing? There are still plenty of shadows looming over the stockmarket As stocks rally and Feds circle, short sellers face tough calls In defense of short sellers The best investment money can buy Obama stakes his fortunes on failed banksters Does Obama really work for Wall Street? The Secret Stress Tests What's next for banks? The lessons of the Savings-and-Loan crisis What are banks really for? Should banking be boring? Why we should expect more pain to come Earnings recovery could take 20 years? Where's your bailout? Just wait! Treasures rise after Fed purchases U.S. debt The debt to the penny and who holds it What does $1 trillion look like? If you thought Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme was bad, wait until you hear about the inverted pyramid scheme the federal government is working on Looking for a top in investor sentiment Sentiment overview Cockeyed optimism can wreak enormous damage on an economy Are we all now too complacent? More Americans turn gleefully frugal Are bearish economists counting consumers out too quickly? What really sells in a recession Recession pain, even in Palm Beach How about some inflation and deflation? After borrowing billions, colleges rush to avert financial fallout Obama's heathcare plan is big bark, small bite Sign of the times - Wall Street stars begin to scatter We are in the midst of a data mining renaissance Experts recommend using hedging strategies following recent market rally Bear market rallies call for different strategies "If you have any common sense, you will not get levered to this rally." - Howard Lindzon Keep an eye on this - the incredibly shrinking market liquidity Low volatility associated with recent S&P peaks Have you looked at the percentage of stocks above 50-day moving averages? A rare technical sighting: T2108 over 90% Indeed, it's an overbought market A new tool to compete with VIX? The challenge of slow markets Here we go again! How cheap is the market? Buy signal confirmed The Dow/Gold Ratio as a stock market indicator What about usefulness of the ECRI's weekly leading index? Is market turning? Stay skeptical More meltdown! Growth stocks are ready for a comeback? Commodities have turned the corner Time to bet on oil again? IEA sees oil demand fall in developing countries Alaskan oil forecasts Brazil's oil euphoria China's runaway steel train China loans and money supply jump to records on stimulus Russia is leading the BRIC rally Emerging markets go on a tear Mexico's investment wave The economic upside of immigration and migration New optimism & hope across the pond Genworth tumbles after being rejected for TARP Aaron Rents revs up the motor... Skype founders may seek to buy it back Steve Wynn on 60 Minutes More hype for Zion Oil & Gas Smoke and mirrors at Wells Fargo? If Goldman's selling...beware of buying Goldman Sachs hires law firm to shut blogger's site Bank of America punishes customers who dare to have a balance 5 banks that don't suck Google expected to post modest performance Wall Street expects another strong quarter at Apple Criteria for picking inflation proof, high dividend stocks Important - this week's earnings preview 99 top ethical companies Trading options with the wisdom of Mark Twain Using Joe Granville's On Balance Volume (OBV) to your trading advantage More info on Fibo retracements Be honest - are you mentally lazy? Did you recharge your emotional battery over the holiday? New books pitch investment strategies Several ETFs are now within striking distance of their 10-month moving averages Recent performance stats of leveraged ETFs Leveraged ETFs beat margin Sleeper sector ETFs David Dreman exits unbowed Why mutual fund managers are doomed to underperform the stock market More investors say bye-bye to buy-and-hold Jack Bogle's last crusade? Asset allocation for all markets? Sales of immediate annuities are climbing Socially responsible funds are still drawing dollars Brokerage firms are adjusting to their clients' fast-growing affinity for Twitter Credit Suisse starts shutting down U.S. offshore accounts Tactics of the rich Dave Ramsey's Baby Steps is a financial plan designed to help you get your finances in order, get out of debt, and achieve financial freedom A key change in Suze Orman's credit card strategy I must admit - I really like the idea of no spend days April is financial literacy month. Here are 30 steps to financial wellness Simple real-time expense tracking via text, email & twitter The importance of establishing positive habits and routines Seven productivity tips for people that hate getting things done Speed and greed are today's obsessions A number of great time management tools Simple ways to simplify your life "The market is the sum total of the wisdom and the ignorance of all of those who deal in it and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed." - John Mauldin This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Fair Value For The S&P 500 Posted: 13 Apr 2009 06:01 AM PDT Good morning. Stock futures currently point to a lower start. Top headlines in focus include more bankruptcy talk at General Motors, more bank failures, increased congressional scrutiny for bailed-out banks, and a Tarp investigtor is investigating whether banks have cooked their books to secure bail out cash. We also have some M&A activity this morning. Express Scripts will buy WellPoint's in-house pharmacy-benefit management business for $4.68 billion, eBay agrees to buy a 34.2% stake in South Korean rival Gmarket, and reports suggest that Microsoft and Yahoo! have resumed talks again. Goldman Sachs is also considering a multibillion share offering to help repay the $10 billion it owes to the government. Premarket gainers: MGM, WLP, YHOO, APWR, DNDN, TTWO, ESRX, SNDA, ANAD, IIJI, BRCD, TCK, WDFC, LVS, APEI, THC, CKSW, RACK, OCNF, TTM, & PCU. Premarket losers: GNW, WFR, SUSQ, DPTR, GM, WFR, SPAR, ZEP, ROCK, AER, BCSI, PTRY, NITE, XIDE, SONE, JDAS, ACAS, PALM, JASO, BA, & BAC. There's not much on the calendar for today other than the 10:AM Moody's survey of business confidence. Earnings season won't pick up the pace until mid-week and keep in mind that some markets around the world are still closed today following Easter. After the S&P 500's largest gain since 1933 (+27% since March 9th), we're overbought and fast approaching key over head resistance levels. For what it is worth, Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen says their fair value estimate for the S&P 500 is about 900 and their view for a few months out is about 1025 or 1050. This earnings season is off to a strong start, but we lose the pre-holiday positive bias and focus will remain on reaction to this week's earnings. On the downside, last Thursday's opening gap has created a nice gap to fill. On the upside, S&P 900 should prove to be a tough level of resistance especially if we don't see some price consolidation over the next couple of days. Let's make it a great week.

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