Monday, March 30, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Monday Mailbag

Posted: 30 Mar 2009 07:12 AM PDT

Monday Mailbag
Time for another mailbag! In this post, these are the topics I will be covering today:
  • Using The Parabolic Sar

  • Intraday Analysis Following Premarket Bias

  • The Importance Of Exposure To Commodities

  • My Stochastic Settings

  • Chart Review Of Intuit

  • Daytrading Leveraged ETFs

  • Auto Trade Trading Systems

  • Failure To Participate In Rallies As A Trading Tell

  • Shorting Stocks Within My Screens

  • Relative Outperformance Of China

  • What Will Change My Current Bias

  • The Most Important Factors For My Analysis

  • Charting Gold

  • Managing Earnings Risk

  • Sector Tracking & Leadership

  • Questions I Don't Like To Answer

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The Best Test So Far

Posted: 30 Mar 2009 06:06 AM PDT

Good morning. Premarket futures are well into negative territory and point to a rough start to the week.

The headlines are overwhelmingly negative with the focus on bankruptcy fears for GM and other automakers, bank nationalizations in Europe, a sell call on stocks from Morgan Stanley, rising mortgage defaults & delinquencies, and comments from Geithner over the weekend. In sum, we're going to get a very good idea of how strong the market really is as it faces one of the best tests so far.

Premarket gainers: FITB, SLAB, SPRD, FAZ, DTO, EDZ, FXP, SKF, MPEL, SRS, ERY, SMN, BGZ, & TASR.

Premarket losers: ARNA, GM, BAC, C, TWX, CTIC, LNC, MTW, BCS, WFC, UBS, CSUN, DRYS, ENER, MTL, ING, JASO, CENX, GMXR, FSLR, TBSI, CRNT, STX, SBUX, PALM, SPWRA, RGLD, STEC, GOLD, FWLT, LYG, GS, & GE.

In contrast to the rest of the week, today doesn't has much on the calendar. We have some Fedspeak from Bullard and Duke and the 10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey but that is all.

Clearly, I'm very interested to see how this market holds up given the headlines and concern for this week's economic data including Friday's jobs report. As I first line in the sand, the prior resistance now support between S&P 790 to 803 area will be an important level to hold on a closing basis. We also need to see if the ultra short ETFs see upside momentum beyond the start of trading. In premarket action, a number of those ETFs are seeing some interest as traders seek protection and look to capitalize on this morning's negative sentiment. I would put a few of those (like the FAZ & SRS) on the radar this morning as well.

Let's make it a great week!

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