Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Memo To Bears - Suck On This!

Posted: 10 Mar 2009 02:32 PM PDT

By all accounts, that's was one heck of a Turnaround Tuesday. In fact, the largest single-day advance since November 24.

S&P 500: 10 Day View

Massive short-covering in the financials ignited quite a run with the only weak spots out there in gold, oil, and bonds.

We can debate the merits of whether this rally is for real, but as always the proof will come if there is any subsequent follow-through. In my view, we'll probably need at least another +20% on the upside before people feel the need to be long anything again. And, frankly, the more skepticism over these kinds of reversals the better in my view.

As always, the price action over the coming few days needs to show us that today is something different than other bear market rallies we've seen before. As a starting point, we need to at least fill that March 2nd gap down and move into positive territory for the month and do it soon (like tomorrow).

Turnaround Tuesday?

Posted: 10 Mar 2009 05:45 AM PDT

Good morning. Premarket futures are positive and indicate we're set for a potential Turnaround Tuesday.

The positive bias began after an internal memo surfaced in which CEO Vikram Pandit at Citigroup said the firm was profitable in both January and February. In addition, retail chain store sales increased from last week.

However, not all of the headlines have a bullish bias this morning. Namely, the IMF warned of Great Recession, Moody's unveiled its list of companies it believes are most likely to default on their debts in the next year, deflation concerns rise in China, and Meredith Whitney says credit cards are the next credit crunch.

Premarket gainers: RMBS, ODP, FAS, CS, LVS, ETFC, C, BCS, ING, AEG, AXA, BAC, RBS, CS HBC, UBS, WFC, MT, JPM, EGLE, DRYS, ASML, PALM, UAUA, JASO, ZION, JRJC, TXN, COF, STT, STM, X, CAT, TBSI, GOLD, ENER, BIDU, JOYG, GE, CASY, AMZN, INTC, & RIMM.

Premarket losers: AVAV, FAZ, SKF, JCI, TZA, DOW, IAG, SHPGY, MTW, GRS, STEM, SAFT, & CMTL.

At 10:AM we have the report on wholesale inventories and throughout the day lots of chatter regarding changes to mark-to-market accounting and Bernanke's speech. Go make it a great day!

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