Monday, March 2, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Bulls vs Bears

Posted: 02 Mar 2009 01:50 PM CST

A picture sometimes is worth a thousand words:

Bulls vs Bears

After getting killed (i.e. stopped out) at the open, I'm doing a little buying this afternoon again (partial positions with tight stops, of course). I feel like doing this as much as I like going to the dentist, which is why I'm still firing away.

I wish I could say I'm expecting a nice final hour reversal, but I don't. In fact, on the contrary which is ok. In my view, another ugly close would be what we need especially since I have a few stocks that I want to buy that are refusing to pull back to levels I want them at.

Boy, what a rough way to start out the new month.

An Economy In Shambles

Posted: 02 Mar 2009 08:30 AM CST

Good morning. Premarket futures are suggesting a negative start to the new month.

Investors aren't happy with this morning's headlines including another $30 billion dollar lifeline for AIG, a dividend cut at GE, and comments from Buffett who said the economy will be in shambles this year, and perhaps longer, before recovering. Combine all of this with elevated concern that forced selling is likely to occur within hedge funds in March and you can certainly understand why the premarket futures are so negative.

At 10:AM we have the ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending reports. Also, both the Fed's Lacker and Rosengren are scheduled to speak around noon.

While March tends to be a positive month for the market (with gains occurring early and mid-month), traders will be hunting for the next level of support as we push to new lows this morning. For many, we'll have to see a sustained reversal above the S&P 742 area before even most ardent bulls are willing to give the market any benefit of the doubt. Options investors are currently paying twice the decade's average to protect against additional losses signally real panic to some.

Let's make it a great week!