The Kirk Report

A Timely Reminder Posted: 23 Feb 2009 03:27 PM CST <p>On such ugly day, it is always nice to be able to share a happy chart to serve as a timely reminder of why we're still in this game. Shares of <b>Nova Chemicals (<span id="ticker">NCX</span>)</b> soared <span class="green"><b>+285%</b></span> today on news of being acquired by the country of Abu Dhabi. <p><div style="margin-bottom:5px; margin-top:8px;" align="center"><img src="http://www.kirkreport.com/pictures/ncx_2_23_09.gif" border="0" alt="NCX" width="448" height="327"></div> <p>If you recall, <span id="ticker">NCX</span> was one of the <a href="http://www.kirkreport.com/login.html"><b>36 stocks</b></a> we're currently tracking due to their wide discounts from book value. <p>Apparently those with cash to spend in Abu Dhabi are running value stock screens these days. If the market is going to bottom, we need to see a lot more of the same as vultures go to work.

Read & Weep Posted: 23 Feb 2009 03:03 PM CST Wall Street awaits Treasury details Uncle Ben to the rescue tomorrow? While spending money like madmen, Obama aims to cut deficit by 2013 The financial engineers are at it again The real need for stable economic policies from Washington The economy needs coordination, not money from the government States face tough decisions How California became France Americans #1 fear Can talk of a depression lead to one? Recent economic data shows the recession is getting worse More red flags in credit markets Controlling swaps' risk is still vexing Greenspan's libor barometer Watch those credit card defaults Financial regulators will soon launch a series of stress tests Good news - this will be the last big week for earnings 5 things to watch this week A joint lie by the Treasury, Fed, & FDIC? Fed offers bleak economic outlook Just blame past Fed policy for this mess About that deflation risk Deflating the hype about deflation How about this - we need even more stimulus! With February almost in the can, all eyes on March The pain of mean reversion Do you realize that the Dow has finished the day higher only 36.7% of this time so far this year? Stock market pullback isn't just financial now Are you stumped by the re-test of the lows It's almost like 1929! It is different this time! Makeover calls get popular for the Dow Be leery of Dow Theory Dividend to earnings payout ratio Are valuations still expensive? What about that darn VIX? Feeling greatly depressed? Options traders are bracing for more financial curves Poor investor sentiment The bloggers stay bullish! Can you feel the hope? As stock losses loom, don't throw a hail mary Very interesting - new trends in trading More traders tap stock baskets for industry bets Defensive investors pile into gold and short-selling funds as markets tumble Investors rush into gold coins Gold primed to be mania asset The SKF wags the dog Q&A with Robert Rodriguez Obama's plan will help these industries Health care ETF's $140 billion dollar boost More newspapers file for Chapter 11 Positive vibes for airlines The benefit of a return to old-fashioned, bread-and-butter banking Manhattan's luxury real-estate market is rotting Foreclosure cases overwhelm Florida courts U.S. office vacancy rates jump 16.7% Roger Nusbaum's perspectives on the mortgage plan European leaders agree to double the IMF's resources and back more regulation Dubai gets a $10 billion dollar bailout More skepticism over the relative strength in China Some investors clean up as Eastern Europe totters Another timely lesson from Japan Sentiment around the world is staggeringly bad Sovereign wealth funds to stay passive Currency exchange rates by email The top 30 innovations of the last 30 years Many companies fail to write down ARS losses New York to retrain laid-off Wall Streeters Meredith Whitney moves on Slave labor at Burger King? A double discount at Loews Trading opportunities in biotech? 4 stocks for scaredy-cats 8 possible targets for Exxon's cash Keep tabs on this - China prepares to buy up foreign oil companies! Ponzi + Pyramid = Prepaid Legal Services Another look at ResMed Opportunity in the Treehouse? Top 10 banks....then & now Some reverse engineering to find what's working now On the other hand, the S&P 500 stocks that are the most oversold based on a 12-day moving average 26 S&P companies that have raised dividend payouts annually for 36 years in a row Four companies growing as economy stinks Three profit growers 11 bosses betting big on sinking ships Ten cash-rich, low priced turnaround stocks Looking for action? Some of the market's most volatile stocks Recent outperformers & underperformers John Loeb's 10 pieces of time-tested advice Just call me Mr. Flexible! Three ways to make money in a downturn The index funds win again! Find an ETF by category Contango's cost to Oil ETF investors Schwab plunge into ETFs may open floodgates Tough times for Buffett investors Fidelity's double down trade in Citi goes awry Are you investing/trading like the penguin or ostrich? End of 401(k) match sparks new strategies Some interesting psychology behind the Twitter phenomenon IRA Dos and Don'ts Mortgage help: do you qualify? How to pay off credit card debt in 10 simple steps Personal Finance = Personal Responsibility What millionaires want from brokerage websites Sign of the times - diversion safes fly off the shelves A couple of websites that will help you save money online - Shop It To Me & Retail Me Not Learn from your mistakes - 7 dumb things we do and 8 tricks to keep errors at bay Achieve your dreams despite pressures of work and family 13 things you must balance in your life "The greatest mistake you can make in life is to be continually fearing you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard

Bailout Backlash Posted: 23 Feb 2009 10:19 AM CST It was only a matter of time before someone decided to create a nifty bailout calculator: This calculator was developed by Right.org which also offers a petition for Americans to sign who are unhappy with these expenditures. Indeed, citizens across the USA are beginning to protest. * Traders aren't too happy either as efforts to block the new trader tax heat up. What interesting times we live in!

Q&A With Mebane Faber Posted: 23 Feb 2009 08:13 AM CST For February's Q&A, I've asked portfolio manager Mebane Faber to be our guest. His firm, Cambria Investment Management, focuses on quantitative investment strategies. Mebane is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in Barron's, The New York Times, Real Money, Seeking Alpha, and The New Yorker. I learned about him some time ago through his excellent blog, World Beta. Recently, Mebane also co-founded a new website - AlphaClone - which is focused on building portfolio clones based on the holdings of the world's top fund manager's. Finally, Mebane also has a new book coming out next month called "The Ivy Portfolio." Mebane is well-known in the investment world. His research paper, "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation," has attracted a tremendous amount of positive attention as it outlines a very simple timing method that has improved returns versus a buy-and-hold strategy by reducing portfolio risk and trading frequency all while being invested in the market approximately 70% of the time. In this Q&A, we'll talk quite a bit about this approach and other perspectives I think will help you tremendously with your long-term investing and market-timing.....[READ]

End-Of-February Relief Trade Posted: 23 Feb 2009 08:09 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are showing a positive bias. Strength in overseas markets and news that the U.S. government plans to increase its stake but not fully take over Citigroup and other banks eased some of the nationalization fears we saw last week. In other news, investors are looking at the latest Chicago Fed Index, Treasury advisers have started lining up the biggest bankruptcy loan ever in case General Motors and Chrysler need it, and another survey of business economists remains bleak. We also have a fresh press release from the government regarding the new Capital Assistance Program. Premarket gainers: C, FITB, MS, BAC, WFC, JPM, GE, OCNF, NCX, BCS, DRYS, RBS, HST, BQI, ACAS, ALD, ICO, GNW, LVS, GEOY, EGLE, PALM, UAUA, SNAK, ZION, GERN, FSLR, ENER, & SOHU. Premarket losers: GOLD, UBS, CS, MT, WYN, NYT, AEF, HCS, HS, & BRKL Today we have the 10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey and Fedpeak from both Lockhart (12:40PM) and Fisher (6:PM). Beyond the latest from the government and financials, the two big market movers this week will be durable orders and the GDP. Traders will also be watching for any hints of stability in the housing sector as new home and existing home sales reports are provided. While the Monday after expiration is often a negative day for the market, we're oversold enough here for a short-term relief trade. After that, things get much more difficult to figure out especially given the lack of clarity and confidence in the market, financials, and the government's plans. In the S&P 500, for example, we could rally up into the mid 800s and still not change the negative technicals so, while we have room for a profitable relief trade, we have a long way before the damage we've seen is repaired. Let's make it a great week!

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