The Kirk Report

High Expectations = Disappointment Posted: 13 Feb 2009 03:53 PM CST The market posted its sixth loss in five weeks and its worst weekly showing since November as high expectations for government stimulus and bank bailouts turned to widespread disappointment. Since last Friday's close, the S&P 500 declined -4.81%, Dow -5.20%, Nasdaq -3.60%, and the Russell 2000 -4.75%. To win big this week you needed to be "ultra short" almost everything, but especially real estate (SRS), financials (SKF), utilities (SDP), oil & gas (DUG), and small caps (SJH). While you're at it, it would have also been helpful to be short Japan (EWV) and China (FXP) but long Russia (RSX). Next week is another 4-day trading week along with February options expiration and you know how I feel about those (i.e. they tend to be the most challenging). So rest up, have a great Valentine's Day tomorrow, and I'll see you on Tuesday morning. Enjoy the weekend my friends!

Tweet This Posted: 13 Feb 2009 10:53 AM CST Wall Street doesn't like how the trillion dollars will be distributed to save them What's in the bill for you? Here's an overview Band-aids for the ailing economy The next challenge for stimulus - spending all that money! How the crash will reshape America More cautionary tales from Japan According to the Fed, family wealth in U.S. was only a mirage Are we going to loot social security? All spending is good spending After curbing enthusiasm, Obama must ease anxiety Obama must lead the way on global financial reform Are the wrong people in charge? Hardly the best and the brightest The media is driving a mental depression The toxic assets challenge Cries to suspend mark-to-market accounting get louder Michael Lewis provides some free advice to Wall Street Will we see even more earnings setbacks in 2009? More fair value debate The market's p/e ratio has risen in recent months Global threats to the nation When priced in gold, the Dow from 1999 to today is down -81% Weekend research - lots of gold stocks among Barchart's 100 Silver: the other precious metal If deflation sticks around, history is clear A safe place to ride out deflation China's economy is showing signs that a their stimulus package is taking effect Standard & Poor's oil & gas plays What's Hodges up to lately? The silver lining to the Geithner selloff Watch those 5 day moving averages Percentage of stocks sitting above their 50-day ma Do regional banks provide an important tell? Here's what is working...and what isn't Dividends in danger No wonder there are no IPOs anymore Geron uses stem-cell hype to soak investors What's up with Buffalo Wild Wings? Oh Martha! Investors still love Goldman Sachs Toyota cries uncle Mr. Softee's latest brillant idea (can't they think of anything creative on their own) 71 stocks leading the Nasdaq higher 17 stocks that are above the 50 & 200 day moving averages: APOL, AVAV, EEI, EGY, ESI, EW, GMCR, HWKN, IAG, ICUI, MED, MTXX, NFLX, NITE, RAH, SXCI, & WIRE Over the past 30 days, 25 top performers: PDGI, ANDS, EYE, DFT, PALM, NG, MF, ZGEN, SOLR, IDEV, MELA, WNR, CONN, CVTX, INSM, NTCT, CVI, SIRF, STEM, SYNA, ARNA, HNT, NGD, ITMN, & GSS Whitney Tilson on trying to alter one's approach based on the lessons of the past year Remember, it is human nature to fall prey to recency effects Andrew Horowitz's spreadsheet for finding entry and exit points A simple adaptive system for IWM Dividend ETFs offer mild defense Do The Math! Investing for the really long term Thanks a lot! Experian to stop selling FICO scores to consumers "One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world." - Edwin Lefevre This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Chasing The Carrot Posted: 13 Feb 2009 07:55 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures have been volatile and currently point to a slight negative open. There is little in the way of market-moving data this morning, which leaves market participants to focus on yesterday's final hour reversal and word that help may be coming for troubled mortgages. Timothy Geithner apparently intends to make the mortgage plan public next week, once again providing the market with a carrot to keep hope alive this holiday weekend. In other news, banks may require more aid to keep solvent and euro-zone GDP contracted 1.5%, which is the most on record and even weaker than the market consensus estimate. Premarket gainers: MELA, RACK, CSTR, VCLK, CTSH, SIGM, GDI, RAH, MHO, FRE, ISIL, ALXN, MPEL, AAI, YRCW, ANF, MFE, DFT, JASO, RBS, HBC, SIRF, PALM, & PEP. Premarket losers: SVNT, CAKE, AMKR, GERN, STEM, AYR, JAH, NTGR, LPHI, TDS, FST, WFC, PC, CAL, CENT, JAVA, COGO, QGEN, GOLD, WFC, EGLE, FITB, & COCO. Ahead of a three-day weekend, the only report due out is one on consumer sentiment at 9:55AM. Markets will also be looking to see if Congress approves the $789 billion stimulus package as well as a meeting in Rome of Group of Seven industrialized nations of finance ministers and central bankers. We should expect to see volume slow down a lot this afternoon as traders close up shop early (my plan as well). For what it is worth, the trading session on Friday before President's Day has been weak in recent years but with this headline-driven environment, anything is game for today. Have a good one! This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

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