The Kirk Report

Here's Your Stimulus Package Posted: 12 Feb 2009 01:17 PM CST A sweet victory for Obama? Obama's stimulus plan is a joke The stimulus package is simply a cruel trick to give some people some hope? Obamulus not enough to avert biggest GDP drop As Washington wrestles with rescue packages, Wall St. stalls Michael Moore asks bankers to help prove bailout is a swindle Political pratfalls in our financial farce Tim Geithner's monumental whiff Geithner bailout may speed up bank failures Turbotax Tim rebuffs critics on banking rescue plan Treasury may need more funds Now is a time for simple and effective behavior! Here's who will benefit from stimulus accord More details about the plan Hope fades for second half recovery Coming soon - Capitalism 3.0 Tide-wave economics Ready for more bad news? Prepare yourself for a 3-year great recession The New Depression A Howard Ruff signal? Las Vegas has become like the rest of America A whopping 100% of CEOs admit to frequently thinking about their company's reputation The Blame Game Hints of stability emerge in fragile financial system Are you paying attention to the bond market this week? Identifying industries with positive trends has become increasingly difficult At least one sunny outlook on stocks Another commodity snapshot The Fickle Dollar Trade A bleak outlook for Asia Ireland & Spain are most vulnerable to rating cuts Laid-off foreigners flee as Dubai spirals down Midway Games bites the dust The Sirius XM fiasco is fast becoming high drama Stocks the rich executives are buying Moroney's quant screen finds two screaming bargains University of Michigan's top value screen Let the Tiger Cubs manage your portfolio A closer look at Harvard's portfolio changes Have you played with the guru screener lately? John Reese's 6 principles Sam Stovall's 7 rules More gambling psychology - near misses motivate gamblers The markets today tend to be contrarian day-to-day Using On Balance Volume (OBV) Preferred stock isn't always preferable Beware of setting goals! For those who like making checklists - try this Obstacles for young investors Your money...swept away! Where to stash your cash Where is the love? A Valentine's Lesson Attention cheapos - free printable Valentine's cards "The three great essentials to achieve anything worth while are, first, hard work; second, stick-to-itiveness; third, common sense." - Thomas Edison This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Heartbreakers Posted: 12 Feb 2009 09:40 AM CST It's almost Valentine's Day and as many of you may recall, last year I asked members to submit the name of the stock that they think will cause investors the most heartbreak (i.e. the most loss) over the next year. As you'll see, the performance of last year's list certainly accomplished its intended goal. The 2008 list of heartbreakers not only lost more than the market (the S&P declined -38.2% vs -42.25% for the heartbreakers), but only 5 of the 44 stocks managed to post a positive return since last Valentine's Day. Some of these stocks were truly heartbreakers in every sense of the word. I'm fairly sure that not many people expected companies like Crocs (CROX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Dryships (DRYS), Motorola (MOT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Vmware (VMW), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), or Salesforce.com (CRM) to lose more than half of their value over the past year. Ouch! While it is always interesting to see what members select for this annual list, the main purpose for it is simply to encourage everyone to think of the market from different perspectives and to at least consider that there are opportunities on the short side. As we saw from last year's performance, sometimes shorting stocks that are in favor can pay off. Speaking of which, it is time for members to tell me their favorite heartbreaker stock for the coming year. Please have your idea to me before Valentine's Day and I'll reveal this year's list next week. Based on what happens by tomorrow's close, I'll be sending the member who selected the worst performing heartbreaker a nice little Valentine's Day gift!

Stimulus Winners & Losers Posted: 12 Feb 2009 08:01 AM CST Good morning. Following weakness in overseas markets, premarket futures point to a negative open as concerns continue that government actions may not be effective. In addition to lots of mixed earnings reports, the data this morning isn't too bad. Retail sales actually climbed 1% in January, initial jobless claims fell 8,000 and foreclosure filings drop 10%. All three reports were better than expected. Premarket gainers: AIPC, BWLD, ASIA, WINN, CMG, DGIT, SNWL, STI, STEM, PRGN, DFT, SIRI, ZEUS, PCH, JAH, AFL, ZGEN, O, LVS, KO, BKC, & CAL Premarket losers: TEX, GIL, AIB, SQNM, JASO, FITB, AIB, EDU, VPHM, DRYS, ATVI, ICO, STRA, YRCW, SUNH, MAR, LIZ, MAS, BMRN, ELOS, PALM, STR, EQIX, NTAP, AAUK, APOL, BAC, GOLD, BHP, CECO, & SIMG. The 10:AM report on Business Inventories will be the only report released during the trading day. After Congress finalized its stimulus deal, Wall Street will now turn its attention to figuring out who stands to benefit the most and whether the plans will be effective. I expect a choppy session out today with the dominant bias to assert itself after 10:AM. I'd also watch those financials (like the FAZ) to see if the bearish bias in premarket trading continues after the opening bell. Go make it a great day!

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