Thursday, February 12, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Here's Your Stimulus Package

Posted: 12 Feb 2009 01:17 PM CST

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Heartbreakers

Posted: 12 Feb 2009 09:40 AM CST

Heartbreakers
It's almost Valentine's Day and as many of you may recall, last year I asked members to submit the name of the stock that they think will cause investors the most heartbreak (i.e. the most loss) over the next year.

As you'll see, the performance of last year's list certainly accomplished its intended goal. The 2008 list of heartbreakers not only lost more than the market (the S&P declined -38.2% vs -42.25% for the heartbreakers), but only 5 of the 44 stocks managed to post a positive return since last Valentine's Day.

Heartbreakers

Some of these stocks were truly heartbreakers in every sense of the word. I'm fairly sure that not many people expected companies like Crocs (CROX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Dryships (DRYS), Motorola (MOT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Vmware (VMW), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), or Salesforce.com (CRM) to lose more than half of their value over the past year. Ouch!

While it is always interesting to see what members select for this annual list, the main purpose for it is simply to encourage everyone to think of the market from different perspectives and to at least consider that there are opportunities on the short side. As we saw from last year's performance, sometimes shorting stocks that are in favor can pay off.

Speaking of which, it is time for members to tell me their favorite heartbreaker stock for the coming year. Please have your idea to me before Valentine's Day and I'll reveal this year's list next week. Based on what happens by tomorrow's close, I'll be sending the member who selected the worst performing heartbreaker a nice little Valentine's Day gift!

Stimulus Winners & Losers

Posted: 12 Feb 2009 08:01 AM CST

Good morning. Following weakness in overseas markets, premarket futures point to a negative open as concerns continue that government actions may not be effective.

In addition to lots of mixed earnings reports, the data this morning isn't too bad. Retail sales actually climbed 1% in January, initial jobless claims fell 8,000 and foreclosure filings drop 10%. All three reports were better than expected.

Premarket gainers: AIPC, BWLD, ASIA, WINN, CMG, DGIT, SNWL, STI, STEM, PRGN, DFT, SIRI, ZEUS, PCH, JAH, AFL, ZGEN, O, LVS, KO, BKC, & CAL

Premarket losers: TEX, GIL, AIB, SQNM, JASO, FITB, AIB, EDU, VPHM, DRYS, ATVI, ICO, STRA, YRCW, SUNH, MAR, LIZ, MAS, BMRN, ELOS, PALM, STR, EQIX, NTAP, AAUK, APOL, BAC, GOLD, BHP, CECO, & SIMG.

The 10:AM report on Business Inventories will be the only report released during the trading day.

After Congress finalized its stimulus deal, Wall Street will now turn its attention to figuring out who stands to benefit the most and whether the plans will be effective.

I expect a choppy session out today with the dominant bias to assert itself after 10:AM. I'd also watch those financials (like the FAZ) to see if the bearish bias in premarket trading continues after the opening bell.

Go make it a great day!

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