Wednesday, February 4, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Over The Hump

Posted: 04 Feb 2009 05:26 PM CST

As Pelosi sees 500 million Americans losing jobs and Geithner presses for speed on an economic recovery plan, the market was left relatively uninspired and gave back the bulk of yesterday's gains.

Dow: 10 Day View

Weakness in financials and retailers weighed the market down while continued strength in dry bulk shippers, a rebound in gold and strength in some commodities offered a few of bright spots for the day.

Well, at least we're over the hump. See you tomorrow!

Washington Watch

Posted: 04 Feb 2009 08:30 AM CST

Washington Watch
Good morning. Premarket futures have a slight positive bias as investors digest more earnings, jobs data, and the latest plans from Washington.

Earnings from Disney, Kraft, MetLife, Electronic Arts, Time Warner, and others are out this morning and in focus. Continuing the trend, most of these companies were unable to hit their earnings targets and offered reduced guidance. Like before, today investors will be looking for the "bad news is already priced in" reactions in these to boost confidence when the opening bell rings.

As Friday fast approaches, the latest picture on the U.S. employment picture remains weak, but probably not as weak as some currently fear. According to Challenger, firing announcements rose an astounding 222% last month while the ADP Jobs report found private-sector employment down 522,000 which is better than expected.

Finally, Wall Street will remain on Washington watch as toxic-asset guarantees gain momentum and Obama is set to put a cap on executive compensation for firms receiving "exceptional" federal aid. Also the U.S. Senate has apparently approved tax breaks for Americans buying cars and rumors of big corporate tax cuts are also making the rounds as they did yesterday afternoon.

At 10:AM we have the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey and thirty minutes later the weekly oil inventory data. After the closing bell earnings from Cisco Systems will be front and center.

Frankly, its tough to provide a good game plan for today other than to expect more of what we've seen this week which is lower volume, volatility, but with an overall positive bias as optimism for the next round of bailouts are too difficult for some to ignore. Have a great Wednesday!