The Kirk Report |
Posted: 02 Feb 2009 01:19 PM CST
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Posted: 02 Feb 2009 10:33 AM CST According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, Standard & Poor's top 10 industries in January outperform the index over the next 11 months. To wit, the sectors which outperform in January have a historical tendency to outperform for the full year. Although I don't have a source that will allow me to see the January performance of every Standard & Poor's top sub-industries, I think for general purposes we can get a sense of relative outperformance by just looking at the S&P's Sector Tracker: So far all of the industries are struggling, but we have relative outperformance of three main groups - Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Energy (XLE). Here are their charts: As many of you know, I use Telechart which relies heavily upon Morningstar's Industry Groups. In fact, I utilize this for the stock screen machine as well as you see if you visit the All Screens filter which displays every stock currently found within my stock screen machine with their sector. To see which industry groups have been outperforming the most in January, here are the top 20 Morningstar subindustry groups in January: While I'm not a big fan of utilizing these kinds of historical tendencies for buy-and-hold portfolio construction using just the performance of one month, so many out there do and for that reason alone we should be aware of this pattern and subsequent performance. Like always, knowing which sectors outperform and underperform is always a good idea no matter what time frame you use. |
Posted: 02 Feb 2009 08:30 AM CST Good morning. After the groundhog saw his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter, investors are wondering if January's barometer will hold true in 2009. In premarket trading there's a slight negative bias even though there's not a lot of market moving headlines out there leaving investors to await more progress on Obama's rescue plan and stricter rules for TARP aid. Meanwhile, regulators had to shut down three more banks in the U.S., personal spending and income were mostly inline with expectations, and the ECB is drawing up bad bank guidelines. Premarket gainers: GGP, OMEX, AIB, BANR, USG, NCX, BRKR, SGMS, DROOY, SAY, GNW, HIG, CENX, RTP, PFE, RYAAY, HGSI, BEAV, & SPWRA. Premarket losers: ROK, ASTM, STEM, DRYS, MAT, SIG, ABB, NYX, IP, MI, CPO, CY, RMBS, PALM, UBS, BAC, BCS, GNW, ABB, C, NICE, BBL, HAS, BP, SIG, GOLD, F, WFC, & MS. At 10:AM we have reports on Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index and more earnings after the market close. It's February and historically that has provided a mixed performance with the first half of the month stronger than the second half. Of course, all eyes will be watching for a breakdown of the 800 level in the S&P and 8000 in the Dow that sets up a retest of the November lows. For today, look for the volume to pick up as the day goes on as people work off the superbowl funk. Let's make it a great week! |
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