The Kirk Report

Another Week Gone Posted: 23 Jan 2009 05:23 PM CST You know it's been a tough time for the market when only a smaller loss in comparison to the prior two weeks is considered a good thing. For the 4-day week the S&P 500 declined -2.14%, Dow -2.46%, Nasdaq -3.40%, and the Russell 2000 -4.73%. To win this week you either had to be long and strong gold (see DGP, UGL, GDX, GLD) or be "ultra" short (EFU, SDD, SJH, TWM, FXP). No doubt, today's big spike in oil (USO) will be talked about quite a bit over the weekend not to mention another reversal in tech and financials.. Beyond my screens, some of this week's big upside movers were Satyam (SAY), Stemcells (STEM), Novagold Resources (NG), Geron (GERN), Forestar Real Estate (FOR), Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM), Gammon Lake Resources (GRS), Limelight Network (LLNW), Aurizon Mines (AZK), Northgate Minerals (NXG), Seaspan (SSW), Keycorp (KEY), Hecla Mining (HL), Silver Standard Resource (SSRI), Gold Fields (GFI), Brinker (EAT), Interwoven (IWOV), & Yamana Gold (AUY) Next week we close out January with a Fed meeting, lots of earnings, and much more data. Go get some rest, have some fun, and I'll see you back here on Monday!

Friday Mailbag Posted: 23 Jan 2009 04:30 PM CST Ah, the return of the old mailbag! Here's what I'll be covering this week: Mentoring Opportunities What's Working Now How To Compare & Rank Stocks In Specific Sectors Palm's Big Mo Selling At Price Targets vs Letting Winners Run One Lazy Strategy Which Outperformed In 2008 Bad News Priced In On Earnings? Identifying Short-Squeeze Rallies Using Screens For Market Timing The S&P Level To Watch This is a members' only post. To read, please login.

Trade The Bailout Posted: 23 Jan 2009 10:48 AM CST Obama says stimulus deal on track Treasury 10-year notes head for big weekly loss The brink of debt disaster The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve are now responsible for directly supporting about 70% of the banking system liabilities and 20% of shareholders' equity Banks die too fast for regulators (the worst decline in history) Fed looks like one more shaky bank Can the Feds uncrunch credit? Nationalization's many problems The troubles of the banking system have become particularly vexing "The NBC Golf Commentator Johnny Miller has a great philosophy. His theory is when you get in trouble the first thing you do is get out of trouble , i.e. if you knock it in the woods chip back to the fairway. Unless your Tiger Woods and can bend a two iron under a tree and over a water hazard to a nestled pin on a sand trip circled cantilevered green, take your medicine and move on. The problem with this whole banking imbroglio is that from what I can see none of the institutions are taking that advice. What we have are a bunch of 18 handicappers that have bought fancy clubs and have deluded themselves into thinking they can play from the back tees at Winged Foot." - Christopher Atayan America is facing not only an economic meltdown, but also a moral one A revolution in spirit New restrictions for TARP TARP watchdog will ask where money is While accepting billions of taxpayer dollars, Wall Street & Detroit spend heavily on lobbying Can Obama forge a consensus over stimulus package? Trade the bailout! The Obama Crash! Who to watch in Obama's inner circle and why First 100 days will be the hardest Obama to host meeting on health care The Dems and voodoo economics A look back at the economy, in presidential terms Americans get TARP, they just can't stand it! Beware of simple fixes to a complicated financial mess Another sentiment tell to watch - The Obameter This is not true - but nevertheless interesting from a sentiment perspective concerning Obama What did the Senate Finance Committee forget to ask Geithner? Aren't we lucky to have civil servants like Tim Geithner! State leaders struggle with tough cuts Immigration & environment no longer top priority TrimTabs sees more outflows A contrarian indicator? Companies slash dividends aggressively! Where are the stock buybacks? Defaults on U.S. high-yield corporate debt will likely spike this year "There is enough money in those money markets to gobble up more than 40% of the entire S&P 500 index." - Jason Goepfert A long-term look at the Dow How bad is this bear market in comparison? Chart comparison of four market crashes The comparison with 1932 may not be the apt one The question now is how long will this healing process take? Trend tables! Louise Yamada is getting a lot of attention these days Play the first break! 10 things we're still buying New refinance boomlet may lift economy U.S. home builders have become even more pessimistic about the housing market Forget the McMansion - Americans are buying right-sized homes The mother of all housing corrections appears to be nearing an end The real problem - global economic imbalances India's road to better corporate transparency could be bumpy China needs its consumers to spend Japan's central bank downgrades economic outlook Don't fight the Fed in Brazil? Britain plunges into first recession since '91 Restoring confidence in the U.K. UK crafts bank-loss insurance Oil prices expose ignorance of politicians A possible reversal in oil? Radical gold bugs are more confident than ever Gold's haven appeal "Gold kind of scares me because very often the people involved with it seem to be slightly insane. My other problem is I don't know how to value it. That said, I can certainly see why gold could be considered somewhat of an insurance policy, if not an investment in its own right. Any kind of systemic economic turmoil is likely to drive gold prices higher." - James Montier Appeal of green products growing despite recession Education stocks - enough already? Airlines have another excuse for losing money A sign that auto sales are closer to the bottom than the top and will increase significantly in the future Proof that the for-profit newspaper model seems to be irreparably broken More plays on the infrastructure trend Jim Cramer's Obama Accountability Index A number of companies have taken steps to reduce carbon emissions Private Equity's ultimate buyout Goldman pays Bufffett steep price to gain investor confidence Merrill paid billions in bonuses as losses mounted ahead of sale After spending $1.2 million to redecorate his office last year, Thain finally resigns! Let the lawsuits begin over Bank of America A funny analyst call on Citigroup Toll Brothers offers 3.99% fixed mortgage rate for 30 years IBD takes a technical look at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters IBD profiles NetScout Ezcorp is rebounding upon earnings What's up with the four horsemen of tech? The 100 best companies to work for (I wonder how they have historically performed when compared to the S&P) Best and worst performing S&P stocks since election day Russell stocks with highest & lowest short interest S&P turns up 33 Buffett-style stocks 7 stocks to own in a recession 4 stocks for dollar bears Morningstar's wide moat stocks But if safety isn't your thing - how about some volatile stocks A closer eye on IBM's earnings Microsoft and Google should stick to their main business It's time to bet on Ford & GM? What company is next to go under? Bespoke's sector snapshot A different look at industry momentum Relative strength of discretionary to staples What about the last 5 days of January indicator? Constructing linear regression channels Using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) as a contrarian indicator NYSE TICK is helpful because it is a real time gauge of very short-term sentiment across the broad list of stocks Testing Dow Theory How more info leads to less knowledge E-mini trader shares some trading rules 4 rules for successful short selling Three strategies to profit this earnings season Fibonacci Calculator Pivot point trading Interesting research on the psychology of money A conversation with David F. Swensen Leveraged ETF year-to-date performance Too many people are making sucker bets with these products Inverse charting 101 New VIXes on tap? Mutual funds that have posted above average returns since birth The only funds that have survived a depression Don't miss many new rules for individual retirement accounts Madoff does Minneapolis Behind the Chinese Wall A sign of the times - small investors shun big brokers to do it themselves DIY stimulus package Are you getting your money's worth out of Netflix? spending diary offers a simple way to track and analyze your spending Outsourced chores come back to home although it sometimes comes at a price Donation Dashboard suggests charitable groups that best suit you A big thank you goes out to 24/7 Wall Street for including The Kirk Report as one of their top 25 blogs "Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it." - Dalai Lama * Don't have time to read all of these links? Every day I select three to read for members. Check it out!

Three In A Row Posted: 23 Jan 2009 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Following weakness in overseas markets, premarket futures are indicating a lower open. Earnings from Google to GE are in focus along with a number of other headlines including a human trial of stem cell based therapy, Pfizer is in talks to acquire Wyeth, and Geithner has issued a warning to China over currency manipulation. Premarket gainers: FOR, GERN, ASTM, WYE, EZPW, SAY, STEM, SYNA, NTCT, ZLC, CLWR, FAZ, CBST, RVBD, GTXI, GLD, GOOG, GE, & FTR. Premarket losers: QI, HOG, CRXL, COF, UCBH, BCS, CRBC, ING, DNB, DRYS, WFR, AMD, CYN, FITB, JASO, BIIB, TNL, CME, AEG, RBS, HBAN, FITB, ISRG, NOK, MRVL, & AEO. There is no official economic data scheduled for release today and, if premarket futures are correct, we're going to book a third straight week of losses in the market. However, keep in mind that if recent trends hold true, we've seen strength in the last week of the month in October, November, and December. While it's not enough to become overtly bullish (just as oversold conditions alone have not been a particular helpful of late), it is nevertheless worth mentioning as we close out another ugly week.

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