The Kirk Report

The Next 100 Days Posted: 20 Jan 2009 03:43 PM CST Inauguration days have a relatively poor track record for the market and today was no exception as concerns over the stability and solvency of the financial system dragged the market to fresh January lows. Obama's inaugural address hopefully will be inspiring to many and, as we've seen from the market over these past few months, the challenges ahead are truly tremendous. Over the next 100 days we're likely to see a lot of new government initiatives and, of course, their impact on the market and economy overall. If the last few months are of any indication, this will truly be an interesting time for us all. No matter your political or market bias, I think we'd all agree that we wish Obama much success over the next four years. There's a lot of work to do to put this country back on the right track.

AAII Top Screens: 1-Year Update Posted: 20 Jan 2009 10:00 AM CST One year ago I shared with members 7 stock screens that have posted gains for every year over the past 10 years. So, how did each of those screens hold up between January 16, 2008 and January 16, 2009 as the S&P fell -38.09% during this time frame)? Let's now take a look: O'Shaughnessy Small Cap Growth and Value: -45.24% (1 gainer & 18 losers) O'Shaughnessy Growth: -34.78% (7 gainers & 78 losers) Zweig: -42.22% (0 gainers & 10 losers) PEG With Est Growth: -41.00% (2 gainers & 37 losers) PEG With Hist Growth: -37.02% (7 gainers & 91 losers) Price-To-Sales: -41.50% (5 gainers & 52 losers) Graham Defensive Investor: -28.41% (0 gainers & 4 losers) All in all, not a good showing especially for screens with such a strong and long track record of success. But, as we've seen from tracking the performance of other screens, we shouldn't be too surprised as there were few places to run and hide in 2008. In case you are curious and desire to track this year's list on your own, here are the tickers to monitor.....[READ] This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Obama Day Posted: 20 Jan 2009 07:57 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are indicating a lower open following weakness in overseas markets and more trouble in Europe's banking sector. The British government has announced a second bailout plan and the Royal Bank of Scotland warned that it may lose about $42 billion in 2008. This has put pressure on financials in the U.S. and around the world this morning. Premarket gainers: FRX, NBL, WLP, BRKR, LPHI, EMR, NUAN, QGEN, GLD, MOT, & RFMD. Premarket losers: BCS, STT, ING, RF, AIB, RBS, LYG, VE, BK, HBC, BAC, DB, UBS, WFC, PALM, BP, JPM, C, MS, NTRS, GOLD, EGLE, RDEN, NVDA, TMRK, VIVO, TONE, SWN, & NM. Today will be all about Obama's Inauguration and his plans for the economy. George W. Bush leaves office today with the Dow off 2,306 points from when he took over - one of the worst performances for any U.S. president. Historically, Wall Street and the economy overall simply do better under Democratic presidents and Americans are hopeful that a change in Washington will stimulate an improvement in the economy as well as much needed reform on Wall Street. Beyond Washington, of course there will be lots of earnings this week and we'll soon find out if analysts have lowered the bar enough after cutting them down significantly. But, for today, it will be Obama's day. Have a great Monday!

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