Friday, January 16, 2009

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Winners & Losers

Posted: 16 Jan 2009 05:45 PM CST

The second full week of trading for 2009 is now behind us and it wasn't much better than the first.

S&P 500: This Week

For the week, the S&P 500 declined -4.52%, Dow -3.70%, Nasdaq -2.69%, and the Russell 2000 -3.09%. The big winners were pretty much anything ultra and short the market as represented by strong performances put in by the Proshrs Ultrashort Financials (SKF), Proshares Ultrashort Teleco (TLL), Ultrshrt Msci Eafe (EFU), Ultrashort Msci Emerg Mrkt (EEV), Proshrs Ultrasht Rus Midcp Val (SJL), ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF (FXP), Proshr Ultrashort Industrials (SIJ), ProShares UltraShort Russell 1000 Value (SJF), Proshr Ultrshrt Basic Material (SMN), & Proshrs Ultrshrt S&P500 (SDS).

With the market closed Monday to observe Martin Luther King Jr., we are set to have another 4-day work week and, in my experience, they tend to be some of the toughest. Not only will we have Obama's inauguration, but lots of earnings reports to sort through. While the market managed to end the week above S&P 850, we still have a lot of work to do to confirm that we can manage at least a decent counter-trend rally during earnings season. We are still oversold, but we need to see the buyers return in force and with confidence. Both have been missing so far in 2009.

Have a great long weekend and I'll see you on Tuesday! * I spent the day answer great questions from members and posted the entire Q&A at the members' only website. Be sure to check it out!

Key Reversal Day?

Posted: 16 Jan 2009 08:30 AM CST

Good morning. Following yesterday's intraday turnaround, optimism has returned. Futures have been positive throughout the night and especially this morning indicating that we're going to see gains at the open.

Among the events in focus include another government injection of $20 billion dollars into the Bank of America and guaranteed losses on over $400 billion in assets of both Bank of America and Citigroup. The Senate has voted to release the second half of TARP funds and the new stimulus package has been unveiled. The CPI also fell 1% in December and some of the recent earnings reports have not been as bad as expected.

Premarket gainers: TRA, PSD, CI, BBBB, FITB, PAAS, SONS, HOV, LEA, TWI, MPG, USG, FSYS, CVG, ATVI, EGLE, AMAT, JASO, ACAS, DRYS, RMBS, DNDN, C, BAC, INTC, JPM, MS, GS, RBS, EXM, AAUK, TTMI, GOLD, SCHW, ENER, JCP, & BIDU.

Premarket losers: VIVO, STBA, EL, DNA, RHT, AIB, SPAR, TRW, VAR, SOA, HIL, JCI, CVO, BCS, SWC, SRZ, DDS, OPTR, DPZ, & ARAY.

With options expiration comes higher volume and usually more volatility. This will be even more true with the holiday Monday and as people try to figure out if yesterday marked a key reversal day especially ahead of Obama's inauguration. Obviously, clearing S&P 850 to 900 will be important as a first step.

Have a great Friday!

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