The Kirk Report

What's Happening? Posted: 13 Jan 2009 03:02 PM CST Here is what's happening over at the members' only website so far this week: I shared a simple but effective stock screen I run every week We reviewed many investment & trading lessons from 2008 members shared in the annual membership survey Difficult as it may be, I offered up some good news about the market New Year's Resolutions from members were shared with specific suggestions on how to keep, if not create, even better ones for 2009 A lot more interesting links! Remember, the annual membership is only $50 per year.

Beyond The Static Posted: 13 Jan 2009 11:51 AM CST "Fiscal actions are unlikely to promote a lasting recovery unless they are accompanied by strong measures to further stabilize and strengthen the financial system." - Ben Bernanke Big changes to Obama stimulus plan Obama's Wall Street buddies More bank bailouts are needed! How is the government going to pay for all of the bailouts and stimulus? A new financial transactions tax! The Terrible Lessons of TARP Goldman Sach's 2009 forecast - uncertain, but not uncharted Economists now see longest recession since World War II Spooked by The Federal Reserve Leading economist fears decade of weakness in US Central bankers expect global recovery in 2010 It's possible that this downturn could end quicker than anyone thinks Earnings trends! Five things to know this earnings season The good, bad, & ugly this earnings season From one perspective, earnings season may be not half-bad Welcome to the age of Gigonomics "I expect that unemployment in the current downturn, which will be particularly deep and protracted, eventually will rival, if not top, the 25% seen in the Great Depression." - John Williams The economic weather station California is facing America's worst budget crisis Searching through ancient history for future clues to the market U.S. stock repurchases plunge more than prices "To sustain the bull market, we need to see new 20-day highs continue to outnumber 20-day lows and we need to see a resumption of strength among sectors, money flow, and NYSE TICK." - Dr. Brett Steenbarger U.S. bank earnings may be frightful "If the banks can't participate in a market rally then there can't be a decent market rally. That is why I watch that ratio of the bank index relative to the S&P like a hawk." - Helene Meisler Go ultra short the financials? Remember the December Low Indicator? Checking the Super-Bowl Indicator "After reviewing each year ending with a 9 going back to 1909, we are predicting a tremendous similarity to a pattern that seems to exist at the end of each decade. Almost all years ending with a 9, except 1949, show a pattern that indicates a steady first half of the year with a low in the third week of February moving higher into the first week of May. Then another low appears in the last week of June with a rally into late August." - Daniel S. Shaffer What happening with market sentiment? High net worth clients rethink concept of risk Cash keeps pouring into money funds But the stock bloggers are bullish! "Worry, whether about yesterday or tomorrow, will grind your possibilities into dust and leave you without hope. Never be a slave to the shadows of fear." - Alice Ruddy * Many more links can be found at the members' only website! This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Banks Need More Help Posted: 13 Jan 2009 08:30 AM CST Good morning. The negative bias continues following another long speech by Bernanke including his view that there will be no lasting recovery without more aid to banks. President Bush has already requested the second half of TARP after Obama said that "it would be irresponsible for me to enter into the administration without any potential ammunition should there be some sort of emergency or weakening of the financial system." In other news, Alcoa worse-than-expected loss disappoints, November's trade balance was less the forecast, and retail chain store sales fell 2.3% from a week ago. Premarket gainers: TARG, ZGEN, LIFE, ELN, LIZ, CYCC, VAR, KNL, HUM, CTDC, FCEL, FSIN, HOGS, CBG, GDP, RRI, YRCW, INFY, SYNA, BIDU, GOLD, CLNE, ALVR, & FIG. Premarket losers: CPHD, FSLR, SNV, RBS, OREX, SOLF, EGLE, C, BCS, LXK, WLP, PLD, OSK, WDC, MEE, UBS, SNE, GLW, RTP, BBL, JASO, BAC, WFC, MS, & AA. The only report of concern for today is the 2:PM Treasury Budget in which a huge deficit is expected. The U.S. dollar as well as oil prices wil continue to be monitored closely today. Following last night's post, there's little new to offer up this morning. I'll be watching to see if the market can manage to at least stabilize itself if not foster at least a knee-jerk bounce. As far as I'm concerned, the more oversold we get the better at this point. Have a good day!

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