The Kirk Report

Linky Dinks Posted: 06 Jan 2009 02:47 PM CST The engines that have lifted the U.S. economy out of every recession since World War II will be of little help this time around Another drop in factory orders! Pending home sales disappoint (but data doesn't reflect impact of falling mortgage rates) Another contraction in non-manufacturing activity What about corporate earnings in 2009? This week's earnings calendar Geezeo's Main Street Spending Index is a near real-time look at spending trends and consumer sentiment survey data Will we do what's necessary to prevent Great Depression II? What about bailing out California, Florida, & Michigan? And the poor credit card companies and commercial banks? Government rescue great for GMAC and GMAC only U.S. debt expected to soar! Who is going to bail out the FED? Can the US economy afford a Keynesian stimulus? Live by the Fed's pump-priming, die by the Fed's pump-priming 1929 vs. 2009: Depression Bound? 2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP! What went wrong! Risk management! 25 years of conventional wisdom, down the drain The end of the financial world as we know it Trends that will shape 2009 Themes for 2009 Ken Heebner humbled Wall Street lipstick! Byron Wien's predictions for 2009 "Patience, persistence and perspiration will make an unbeatable combination for investment success in the months ahead." - Doug Kass Kass' 20 surprises for 2009 Five unforgettable and oh-so-wrong predictions from the past year The worst predictions about 2008 Laszlo Birinyi thinks the bottom's in Anthony Bolton, another bottom picker It's tough making predictions, especially about the future! Lazy portfolio creators see winning times in 2009 80% of top performing newsletter gurus are bullish on 2009 Chasing performance through newsletters? It may prove to be a poor bet Nostradamuses are out in force. Wrong again? What's the dumb money doing right now? The mood of the markets Wall Street strategists see an average +16.9% gain in 2009 Searching for a Bottom? Technical indicators of a turning point Have you asked yourself what if everyone is wrong about Treasuries? Why you should keep a wary eye on treasuries At the first sign of strength, some investors may become amnesiacs Obama-related optimism Obama stimulus may not be ready until February Fund managers make the case for Asia China's $200B sovereign wealth fund says cash is still king China must devise a new formula for their economic well-being U.S. will emerge as undisputed top dog in 2009 Fiscal shift in Germany "Don't overestimate the skill and wisdom of professionals." - Peter Lynch * Many more links can be found at the members' only website!

Obama Stimulus & More Data Posted: 06 Jan 2009 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are showing a positive bias as Obama's stimulus plan remains in focus. With billions at stake business lobbyists are lining up for their piece of the action. Otherwise, the newswires are relatively quiet this morning. Premarket trading is seeing some interest again in oil and energy plays and the morning's only datapoint - U.S. chain store sales - actually rose +1.4% last week. Meanwhile, Toyota has also announced they will halt production for a couple of weeks to trim inventory. Premarket gainers: IDEV, ALDN, OREX, ACAS, QI, RTP, BBY, DOW, HOV, MT, BHP, AAPL, BAC, MOS, DRYS, TTWO, TCK, HOGS, AAUK, GOLD, PBR, EXM, CHK, YRCW, TXCO, ALVR, ISYS, & SRZ. Premarket losers: LDK, VDSI, AET, STV, IMN, VE, DNN, MEAS, YGE, RBS, MOS, ENDP, STP, LOGI, ICE, ELX, ESLR, GRMN, & NTAP. At 10:AM we have reports on factory orders, the ISM non-manufacturing survey, and pending home sales index and at 2PM the FOMC minutes will be released. Among these, the FOMC minutes will likely be of most interest due to the Fed's new "quantitative easing" and the reasoning behind that move. Much like yesterday, today's trade is simply about working off the overbought condition without a catastrophic rollover. Holding above 920 on the S&P (or really anywhere above 900) would be exactly what those still putting money to work at these levels need to see. Have a terrific Tuesday!

You are subscribed to email updates from The Kirk Report To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email Delivery powered by FeedBurner
Inbox too full? Subscribe to the feed version of The Kirk Report in a feed reader.
If you prefer to unsubscribe via postal mail, write to: The Kirk Report, c/o FeedBurner, 20 W Kinzie, 9th Floor, Chicago IL USA 60610