The Kirk Report |
Posted: 05 Jan 2009 05:40 PM CST I hope the holidays were good for you and your family. I was able to take off one week for travel to visit with Mom and extended family, but the rest of the time was spent at the trading desk gearing up for the new year along with unpacking & getting set up in our new home. While it turned out to be mostly a working vacation around here, it was still time well-spent. The good news is that I was able to get a lot accomplished. The new trading system is up and running and more importantly, I'm happy with it. I was also able to spend time evaluating last year's performance and reading member feedback via the annual membership survey in order to set new priorities, put some changes into effect, and set new goals for 2009. The bad news is that to get everything that I really wanted to get done, I would need at least another couple of weeks. I'm sure many of know the feeling. After all, who of us has just enough time to get everything we want done in the time we have, right? That's what priorities are all about and getting started on the new year is at the top of the list. And, as bad timing goes, I'm now fighting the flu bug today so, ready or not, sun or shine, back to work I go! Following my decision one year ago to concentrate my focus back on trading, it was a good but not great year overall for my trading portfolio. Up +11% in any year is not something to be especially proud of, though I'd be the first to admit given market conditions I could have fared far worse. I know many of you outperformed much better than that and if you managed positive returns in 2008, you should feel quite good about the year. As I've said, lucky timing (for example, being out of the market and long treasuries due to my family's transition to Utah this summer and fall versus my personal views) helped my performance significantly in 2008. While there were many, the biggest mistake I personally made last year was not being more aggressive on the short-side, especially in the fourth quarter once we had a confirmed downtrend cycle. As they say, you have to take advantage of trends in both directions to do extremely well and I didn't take full advantage. The best improvement in my trading is that the mistakes I made were fairly self-contained. For example, I had no loss greater than -19% in my portfolio for 2008 (in fact 86% of my losing trades were closed at less than -10% below my cost basis which is an improvement). While my loss/win rate was worse this year due to increased trading and higher market volatility (only 71% of the trades I made were profitable versus a much higher rate in previous years) the fact that I kept losses and mistakes I made small were key. Please keep in mind that my trading results have not been independently verified, but when they are I'll share the full track record with members. For 2009, my focus will again remain on putting trading first and foremost (of course, after God, family, & health) and work on improving the value of your membership. I very much appreciate all of those who took time to provide feedback in the membership survey and I think I have a good plan in place to improve your experience here. Here are some of the key (but not all) of the improvements that will come in 2009:
So, all in all, I'm excited about the opportunities 2009 will offer both you and I as I put these changes among others into action. 2008 was very much a transitional year in so many respects for me both personally and professionally and it is with the utmost sincerity that I offer this word of appreciation for you. After all, your continued support makes this website possible and one of the more enjoyable things that I do. Thank you! |
Posted: 05 Jan 2009 11:48 AM CST Remember the McClellan Oscillator I've talked about in the past? Here's how it looked as of this morning: Or, how about the T2108 (% of stocks above 40 day): Among several others, these two explain my "extreme overbought" comment in the premarket post. Frankly, if the market were simply able to pull back a little (without too much technical damage) and not fall completely apart in these overbought conditions, it would be a positive sign. |
Posted: 05 Jan 2009 10:25 AM CST Fighting the great bear market of 2008 has left many a scar on investors' portfolios. And for many, it has been especially painful to review the full-year performance data if you've been brave enough to do so yet. In my experience the vast majority don't really come to terms to how they really performed until they have to do their taxes, but the best investors and traders know where they stand at all times. Needless to say, in both good and bad times we must always take a moment to review our performance so we can learn and improve. But, more importantly, we also have to learn to leave the past in the past where it truly belongs. While it is human nature to dwell in our past mistakes and success, doing so is not helpful and we must resist the urge to waste time in such endeavors. For example, if 2008 was a bad year for you the loss of confidence can create a huge hurdle to overcome this year. Many investors will never be able to overcome it and I've personally seen more traders than I can count never come back following a very tough year. All of us, especially those of us who make a living in the market, will tend to dwell on our mistakes more than our success. To a point, that can inspire change and inspire innovation and new dedication, but for others it can and often destroys them. Those who win in the market long-term must face this challenge head on and overcome it. For some of you, the opposite is true. If you've had a great year in 2008 (and I was extremely pleased to discover from my annual membership survey that many members did), overconfidence and hubris can equally present an enormous challenge and lead you into big trouble. Already I've received a number of emails from people boasting about their performance in 2008. Frankly, I've never seen one good trader engage in that type of activity. Instead, good traders put the past where it belongs and focus their time and attention on what matters the most - making the right decisions right now for their portfolio. Those of us who've been around the block a few times have already learned this and you will as well in time if you haven't already. In the end, no matter how 2008 was for you, it's time to put it away and focus on making 2009 the best year ever. |
Posted: 05 Jan 2009 08:30 AM CST Good morning. It's nice to be back! We start of the first full week of January with negative premarket bias following last week's impressive advance and Friday's upside jumpstart to 2009. Extreme overbought conditions are currently in place. The top focus once again remains in Washington as President-Elect Obama and congressional officials are crafting a $300 billion tax cut and Fed officials endorse big stimulus to battle the recession. The dollar is very strong today versus other major currencies. Premarket gainers: YMI, ISYS, OCNF, MU, EGLE, DRYS, JASO, TASR, XNPT, ATHN, NM, HMA, EXM, GOLD, AMZN, AAPL, ARTC, & TBSI.
Premarket losers: BGR, GGP, ES, SBAC, IAG, RBS, DAI, GRS, VSEA, SAY, HOLX, BIDU, DB, FRE, SNY, CBY, BCS, F, JPM, FNM, SLW, MT, & REP. We have a lot of data this week leading up to another jobs report on Friday. For today, focus will be on motor vehicle sales and the 10:AM report on construction spending. Congressional hearings into Madoff also begin today. That said, Wall Street strategists are very bullish on the market's prospects in 2009. According to Bloomberg, analysts predict the S&P will rise +17% in 2009. Upon the first day back, I will have several posts today at the members' only website to offer performance data for last year along with a special post this afternoon that will outline priorities for 2009. Let's all make 2009 a great year! |
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