The Kirk Report

The Political-Based Economy Posted: 11 Dec 2008 03:00 PM CST The free market clapper! Talk about a political-based economy! $1 of every $4 spent in the U.S. is now courtesy of the government Federal deficit hits a record Why the Fed wants to issue its own debt Grinch steals Washington Christmas It's always darkest before it goes pitch black Households pay down debts for first time The U.S. household is not nearly as bad off as is now commonly believed How about those jobless claims - yikes! The Slate Bailout Guide Everything you want to know about the bailout (but were afraid to ask) TARP the great taxpayer train robbery? U.S. taxpayers are already down $8 billion in one month We need a bailout exit strategy Bernanke tries to draw the line Fighting foreclosures, FDIC Chief draws fire Warren vs Treasury Mortgage rates plummet Why Stanley Bing likes the auto bailout Even with a bailout, automakers would still be running on fumes Why are these GOP senators unhappy with auto aid? Chrysler's hidden coffers Who collects first in auto bailout? Financial groups' problem assets hit $610 billion The risks of risk management Executives are grim on economy "A bear market of the magnitude of 1929 - 1933 would be undeniably scary. But, it wouldn't be the end of the world either." - Mark Hulbert 43 states are in financial trouble Hedge funds shrink by $64 billion Hedge funds' future might lie in the past "You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession. We have sort of become a nation of whiners...We've never been more dominant; we've never had more natural advantages than we have today....Misery sells newspapers. Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day." - Phil Gramm According to TrimTabs.com, short interest is at the highest point since October The TRUTH of the tape The market offers a holiday gift Just another dead cat bounce? Regression to the trend A long-term perspective on the Dow and others Joining many other notable bears, Ned Davis turns bullish Should you jump in now? Bottom fishing in a bear market is tricky Notes from Seth Klarman's HBS Talk Sometimes, it pays to be boring Rotblut shares some sector rankings IEA expects substantial cut from OPEC Are you watching crude? Is the consensus wrong about crude? The dollar breaks the 50 day ma With recent U.S. dollar weakness, we may be seeing the start of the use of exchange rate devaluations as a weapon against deflation Deflation says buy bonds - supply flood says sell Dollar vs Gold - can we trust this change? What happened to Japan under quantitative easing? What to buy in emerging markets Urban Outfitters and the $25 million options payday Five more stocks with zero value Great stock picks for kids Why dividends have outlived their use The importance of using non-confirmation in the marketplace ETF Screener FiftyP: where kids get smart about money and hooked on helping others! Monster Crash! "It is our responsibilities, not ourselves, that we should take seriously." - Peter Ustinov This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

ETF Relative Strength Trends Posted: 11 Dec 2008 10:10 AM CST It is no secret that I've been trading ETFs this year more than before. While I still think opportunity can be found in stocks, the increased volatility in the market combined with a need to hedge against individual stock risk in a recession/bear market have made ETFs a far more valued trading vehicle. In fact, I'd even go so far as to suggest that most individual investors would be far better served trading ETFs rather than stocks for this very reason especially if they are highly-skilled in the art of technical analysis. I bring all of this up because recently I was asked by a member how I screen for and look for trading setups in ETFs. Much like I do with individual stocks, I search for trading setups that are both.....[READ]

Searching For Direction Posted: 11 Dec 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are currently negative but have been volatile throughout the morning as investors search for any reason to buy stocks. Last night the U.S. House approved a $14 billion dollar loan package for the auto industry but it may face tough opposition in the Senate. A final vote is scheduled for tomorrow. In other news, jobless claims rose 58K to 573K last week, import prices fell 6.7%, a larger than expected trade deficit was reported, retail sales post a big drop in November, concerns continue to mount over the charge-off rates among credit-card issuers, and finally while foreclosure activity decreased 7% in November, RealtyTrac thinks is is simply a temporary lull before another foreclosure storm. Bottom line, not a lot of great news out there this morning, but that hasn't matter much of late. Premarket gainers: AMLN, VVUS, CPE, HWD, GEOY, NR, GOLD, BIDU, SMBL, SSRI, PAAS, MKTAY, EMKR, REXX, TOT, EL, FRED, BRY, MMR, HMC, & HAS. Premarket losers: URBN, CIEN, EGLE, DRYS, FMCN, AAUK, EMKR, GIL, LULU, JASO, IBKC, ACGY, ZRAN, CENX, CBT, MT, AU, AAUK, HL, SWK, HBI, & AMR. We have nothing of significance on today's economic calendar and we'll see if the market can break free of its relatively tight trading range this week. Believe it or not, we're still in overbought territory and while the positive bias may continue, the upside should be limited. Have a terrific Thursday!

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