Tuesday, December 9, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

The Trillion-Dollar Rally

Posted: 09 Dec 2008 01:05 PM CST

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Overbought, Now What?

Posted: 09 Dec 2008 08:30 AM CST

Good morning. Premarket futures have been volatile all morning (although currently negative) following impressive gains over the past two trading days.

Once again this morning a number of well known companies have cut their guidance (see Fedex (FDX) & Texas Instruments (TXN)) while reports indicate that the White House and Congress are progressing toward a bailout of the automakers. Meanwhile, retail chain store sales fell 0.8%

Premarket gainers: DRYS, KFN, GGP, XCO, EXM, SMS, GNK, THC, MEI, EGLE, SNE, NAT, TBSI, ALTH, & HMA.

Premarket losers: TRGT, XTLB, FDX, PBY, CNW, STP, NSM, IFX, ODP, RY, NT, UPS, FSLR, DELL, FWLT, HTS, F, GM, YHOO, TXN, LVLT, DHR, & UBS.

The day's only economic report - pending home sales - will be reported at 10:AM. No doubt, the bailouts for the auto industry and Obama's stimulus plan will be the primary focus.

As you may already know, 9 out of the last 11 trading days have been positive and we're fast approaching some extreme overbought readings in some of the oscillators - like the McClellan Oscillator:

McClellan Oscillator

However, a confirmed and sustained close above 927 in the S&P would be a significant positive development in my view and could go a long way help confirm that we're seeing something more than just another bear market bounce. In other words, bear markets get sold when they get this overbought and failure to do so is an important thing to consider.

Go make it a great day!

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