The Kirk Report

Mailbag Posted: 04 Dec 2008 03:07 PM CST It has finally dawned on me that I need to do more frequent mailbag posts. After putting out a request for more interesting questions earlier this week, my inbox was flooded with a lot of awesome questions. I will try to get to most of if not all of them in due time, but for today's mailbag I'll cover the following: Trading On Fear & Panic A Treacherous Environment To Buy & Hold Mortgaging Our Kids' Futures Mentoring Possibilities Where The Best Opportunities Are Website Upgrades Averaging In Or Down In This Market Stock Screens Adrift This Is No Time To Wallow In Misery This is a members' only post. To read, please login.

Trail Blazing Posted: 04 Dec 2008 01:31 PM CST Economists now see the need for as much as $1T in stimulus measures Number of workers on jobless rolls at 26-year peak Has the jobs report already been fully discounted? TSLF to AMLF to PDCF - stop the acronyms! Have you read GAO's report on TARP and the Treasury? Bailout monitor sees lack of a coherent plan Congress set to save Christmas with auto deal Michigan Blue Cross makes bid for aid Here we go again - Fed officials play down risk of deflation According to Bair, we need an exit strategy However, Geithner to give Bair the boot? Paulson debates second cash infusion No decision yet on final bailout cash Policymakers are usually accused of doing too little too late – but what if they are doing too much too soon? Fed extends its emergency lending The flipside of falling rates for U.S. banks Worried about hyper inflation? Don't hold your breath! Let the 2009 prediction season begin! The S&P will soar +53% in 2009! "One only has to recognize that roughly 20% of bank capital is now owned by the U.S. government and that a near proportionate share of profits will flow in that direction as well. Better to own corporate bonds than corporate stocks." - Bill Gross The Great Recession? Only the very optimistic now expect recovery to start in 2009 According to Evans, it is hard to gauge when recession will end Stock performance during recessions (1926-2008) The more the market drops, the more attractive stocks become for long-term investors. Why? Market volatility explained Are investors done being surprised? The market's performance based on the position relative to its moving averages 5-10-20 Trend-Following Strategy Peter Worden reviews the QQQQ The S&P's dividend yield now higher than the 10-year T-note's Building the case for a rally How about another bear market rally? Bernanke urges more aggressive action to halt foreclosures Homes are now undervalued? Luxury homebuilder Toll reports worst annual results since going public Everyone is fixated on super low mortgage rates Delinquent mortgages will likely double by the end of 2009 The latest annual audit of the FHA shows a steep drop in the capital cushion the U.S. agency holds against losses from mortgage defaults Wal-Mart sales were strong in November, but most retailers slumped Amazon takes the cyber-Monday prize Forward prospects for the airline industry look bleak Wow - Oil prices could fall to $25 Economic decline cuts into sales of renewable energy Crash in commodity stocks outpaces that of tech in 2000 Companies face spiraling funding costs Big losses await private-equity investors U.S. to expand tax inquiry to include Credit Suisse and HSBC AIG's CEO wants to renegotiate rescue terms Goldman Sachs may launch an online bank Are U.S. markets turning Japanese? In fight to avert deflation, Fed could learn from Japan Gulf nations plan to form central bank & common currency Europe's stimuli not as impressive as they appear How Iceland melted down Chile hard-hit by drop in commodity prices China's cooling property market chills global economy China's sovereign wealth fund wouldn't dare invest in U.S. financial firms China's devaluation of yuan frightens traders Only new thinking will save the global economy Top 20 magic formula stocks by price/sales ratio Five stocks with super yields 6 stocks paying reliable 6% yields 6 takeover plays Another screen that finds stocks with high growth rates and the low P/Es This week's comeback stocks Don't miss Carret's "Twelve Commandments for Speculators" "You have to know what you are, and not try to be what you're not. If you are a day trader, day trade. If you are an investor, then be an investor. It's like a comedian who gets up on stage and starts singing. What's he singing for? He's a comedian." - Steven A. Cohen Options trading for the beginner Trading lessons from rock climbing Mark Carruthers shares his recommended reading list The intersection of value & contrarian thought Buffett tactics chime with our crazy times The basics of Graham security analysis How to handle your portfolio's losers More on tax-loss harvesting Want to know why a monkey throwing darts is probably as good as your stockbroker? Read on Is now really the right time to build a gloom and doom portfolio of ETFs? Why ETFs are cannibalizing the mutual fund industry Hedge funds haven't done all that well hedging Insurers abandon rosy view of variable annuities How safe is your bank? Look up the ratings at BauerFinancial Teens get their own paypal allowance The 3-day cooling-off period: myth and reality The tax perks of charitable giving The best news I've read in a long time - generous gen-xers 6 financial gifts that let you do more with less this season Afternoon Rally is another social financial news site The holiday season has arrived, and with it, self-reflection has begun "The only thing a trader can do is control his or her risk - on each and every trade. If there is a secret to trading, it is this: take the next trade not to make money but to improve one's skills as a trader. This is how a trader is able to make a living at the game. This is how a trader is able to avoid a catastrophic loss." - John F. Carter This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Sell The Jobs Report Trade? Posted: 04 Dec 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are showing a negative bias as investors sort through a number of headlines. As expected, big rate cuts overseas from the both the ECB & Bank of England are in focus along with the latest from the automakers who apparently are now considering pre-arranged bankruptcies in a last-ditch effort to get federal aid. Much like yesterday, the earnings news and outlooks from companies like Credit Suisse, Merck, & Adobe Systems continue to disappoint as we await tomorrow's jobs report. This morning the Monster Employment Index fell seven points in November reporting that online job availability at its lowest level since 2004 while jobless claims fell 21,000 during Thanksgiving week. Several firms, including AT&T, have also just announced job cuts. Meanwhile, investors are trying to figure out how the holiday shopping season is going with some interesting Cyber Monday comparisons and lots of same-store sales numbers as retailers have another ugly month. Premarket gainers: MNKD, ENZN, PSS, FNM, FRE, PHM, SNPS, CETV, TRIN, AVAV, NOK, WMT, OSK, NARA, TMA, UIS, SQM, CTAS, & DSX. Premarket losers: ISIL, CRUS, SNDK, GM, ABK, DD, ADBE, JAS, F, DMND, HOTT, BHP, ESLR, ERIC, AAUK, FSLR, AML, AIR, RBS, AZO, TSRA, ENL, STLD, GFI, FIG, DD, & NCC. At 10:AM we have a report on factory orders and an hour or so later Bernanke is scheduled to speak about housing. The Treasury is now considering a new plan to help homeowners that would push mortgage rates as low as 4.5% on new loans. Meanwhile, the automakers will present their restructuring plans to the Senate Banking Committee also at 10:AM. Technically, we've climbed back into short-term overbought territory again ahead of tomorrow's jobs data. I suspect that's why we're seeing some negative premarket activity and it will be telling if we can rally both today and tomorrow in spite of whatever the jobs report shows. Clearly, it makes sense to anticipate a sell the bad jobs news reaction, which is why I'm not so sure we'll see one even though we're currently overbought. It seems to me that the market doesn't want to be too negative ahead of what will likely be additional bailouts next week for automakers to homeowners and that alone may help to overshadow what is already expected to be bad news on jobs. So, in other words, I'd be careful establishing both new long and short positions until we see how the market responds to the jobs data. Have a terrific Thursday!

You are subscribed to email updates from The Kirk Report To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email Delivery powered by FeedBurner
Inbox too full? Subscribe to the feed version of The Kirk Report in a feed reader.
If you prefer to unsubscribe via postal mail, write to: The Kirk Report, c/o FeedBurner, 20 W Kinzie, 9th Floor, Chicago IL USA 60610