Wednesday, November 26, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Happy Thanksgiving!

Posted: 26 Nov 2008 03:31 PM CST

Another *VERY* nice day for the market. Seriously, we need Obama to give a speech every single day until the end of the year!

S&P 500: 10 Day View

As many of you already know, the stock and bond markets in the U.S. are closed tomorrow, but will reopen on Friday for a half day. Until then, have a Happy Thanksgiving and I'll see you bright and early on Friday.

A Time For Thanksgiving

Posted: 26 Nov 2008 09:53 AM CST

It has been a year to remember and I'm far more thankful this year than any I can remember in the past. Here are some of the many things I plan to celebrate tomorrow:
  • For my wife who after several years of hard work and dedication, earned a Ph.D. with honors this past summer and then quickly landed a tenured track professorship at a wonderful University. She makes every day of my life filled with love, fun, and happiness

  • For my mom who continues to be my loudest cheerleader and who makes every effort to help others in any way and every way she possibly can. She continues to serve as my inspiration to be kind and put others first

  • For becoming a Godfather to Mara during Memorial Weekend. One of the highest honors I've ever received

  • For the rest of family who were, for the most part, in both good health and wealth this past year

  • For all of my members who support the website year after year after year

  • For all of the people (Dick Davis, Thomas Bulkowski, Jason Goepfert, Teresa Lo, Harry Domash, Jeff White, Roger Nusbaum, Jeff Miller) who devoted hours of time and work for this year's Q&A sessions without asking anything in return. To find people who can offer great insight and are willing to freely devote the time and effort those monthly Q&A sessions require is no easy task

  • For those who have helped me this year by offering feedback and counsel so that I can continue to improve and learn (there are many but the first person that comes to mind is Dr. Brett Steenbarger)

  • For having the courage to finally put trading at the top of my priority list once again so that I can achieve the level of success I know I'm capable of

  • For the great bear market and crash of 2008. This has already set the stage for amazing investment opportunities that will make anything we've seen over the past ten years pale by comparison

  • For stop losses & risk management. Without both, I'd be in the poor house and contemplating a new career choice by now

  • For being able to do what I truly love to do for a living and having enough money saved up so that we never had to worry about how the current financial crisis and stock market crash would negatively impact our lives

  • For the many words of wisdom and spiritual guidance from our church who we continue to enjoy from afar

  • For Father Bennett. May he rest in peace and may I always live a life that he would be proud of

  • For having enough money in our pocket to help others in need much more than we have at any other time in the past

  • For all of our Minnesota friends (especially Mark Podobinski, Julie Thomas, Mary Ann & Gary Anderson, Brian & Shelly Jarnagin, Peter & Wendy Sullivan, Rolf & Kathy Hanson, Mark & Katherine Tondra, etc.) who we miss greatly after moving away from a place we called home for thirteen years. We hope you all come and visit us in 2009!

  • For all of those who continue to serve in our military and who continue to risk their lives for ours

  • For good health. Without it, nothing else would matter

  • For our trip to Maui last March

  • For the beautiful weather and wonderful outdoor activities here in Utah. This is truly God's country!

  • For the many great rounds of golf this year and being able to trim my handicap down to 7 from 15

  • In spite of several ups and downs this year (the flooding of future home two weeks prior to closing this summer and the tornado that hit our home in Minnesota back in May) everything turned out for the better. We will soon be able to move into a much nicer house, for a far better price, than where we would have been without the summer flood

  • For both of our real estate brokers who earned every penny and then some in a very tough market

  • For our new friends in Utah. Everyone has welcomed us and invited us into their lives and homes with open arms.

I could go on, but I'll stop right there. Like many of you, I have a lot to celebrate tomorrow. Thank you for being part of my world and for sharing this wonderful journey with me.

More Weak Data Ahead Of Holiday

Posted: 26 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST

Good morning. Following weakness in overseas markets and a flood of economic data, premarket futures are suggesting a lower open.

The key headlines this morning include a much weaker than expected durable goods, jobless claims fell 14K to 529K last week, and consumer spending dropped 1%. Mortgage rates have also fallen quite a lot with applications up 1.5% in latest week.

In overseas markets, a much larger than expected interest rate cut from China and news that the EU has proposed a large stimulus plan of its own are in focus.



The 10:AM hour will be a busy on with the data on new home sales, consumer sentiment, and the weekly petroleum status report. In addition, Obama is scheduled to speak at another news conference today at 10:45AM. We'll see if the Obama indicator continues to work like we've seen over the past week.

As many of you know, we're entering a positive seasonal period for the market around Thanksgiving even though we all know this year has been anything but normal. The market has dug itself quite a large hole to climb out of in the final two trading days of November and anything other than choppy action between S&P 820 & 880 over the next few days would be a pleasant surprise. Go make it a great day!