The Kirk Report

Spending Spree Posted: 25 Nov 2008 05:42 PM CST Consumers and businesses may not be spending money as they have in the past, but the government is on a historic spending spree. While we didn't gain much ground today, we didn't roll over and die either. A few more days of consolidation following the big reversal would be a positive development. Like many of you, I'm also wondering if we're seeing just more end-of-the-month portfolio dressing before the sellers come out in full force again next month, but we'll cross that bridge when and if we have to. For tomorrow we have a flood of economic data to sort through before Thanksgiving but volume will remain light and trading will likely remain subdued. I know many of you are already headed out for vacation, so let me wish you a Happy Thanksgiving and safe travels.

Turkey Shoot Posted: 25 Nov 2008 12:33 PM CST Fed announces new facility to boost consumer lending How the TALF will work Obama vows 2.5 million new jobs by 2011 Geithner hits the ground running at Treasury Obama's economic advisers deemed market-oriented Obama spending plans a work in progress A New Deal crib sheet How to invest in the Obama recovery The Federal Reserve is at an inflection point The Fed and its lies Largely outside public view, the Fed is lending billions and billions $1 Trillion needed for next stimulus The current bailout is now the largest outlay in American history Paulson's plan is truly idiotic Problem banks rise to 171 U.S. consumer confidence improves moderately Retail sales are soft ahead of black Friday Retailers are noticing a shift away from credit cards in favor of cash and debit cards Christmas spending projection drops to new low 76% of American middle-class households are not financially secure House prices declined at the fastest pace on record as rising foreclosures pushed down property values Thanksgiving dinner cost up 6% this year The wealth effect in reverse In short, it all comes down to a simple bet Economists warn that sustained deflation would deepen the nation's economic troubles IMF economist says worst of crisis to come "The economic indicators are all in the same vein, pointing to a deepening recession.'' - Sal Guatieri ECRI economic cycle data falls to lowest level ever More part-time work is a bad sign Hard times and long lines for Southern Californians "The single most bullish event would be a substantive effort to address valuation of CDO's and CMO's on the books of financial institutions." - Jeff Miller The 20 day moving average holds the key? Financial sector odds Seeking solace? You'll find precious little in the bond market Leverage is an 8 letter word The truth about what America's capital markets have become: a rigged game Credit default swaps are complex and poorly understood We found the W.M.D. Q&A with George Soros Mr. Market has a mistress The illusion of wealth IPO market may be even sicker than it looks "We are setting up for the mother of all bear market rallies." - Barton Biggs This is shaping up as a year when almost nothing went up A historically oversold market "If we assume we are in a 1929 scenario and use this as a template, the market is currently oversold by those standards." - John Hughes Expecting a bottom because we have declined as much as other bear markets is simply not credible "Just a year ago, no one believed we could fall this far. Today, no one seems to be able to imagine that markets will rise again or ever see new all-time highs. They will." - Tim Melvin Which stage of grief do you think we are currently in? Harry Dent's latest prediction Another doomster - Richard Russell Like usual, John Bogle provides good food for thought Opportunity is Nowhere! A number of the investment newsletters are concerned about the Presidential Cycle Corporate insiders in a buying frenzy Did you know that the S&P is averaging a daily move of up or down nearly 4%? More Fibonacci fun! Indeed, it has been a trader's market The declines in the S&P, by one measure, are best compared against the post-World War II period Ben Bernanke and the financial crisis Anatomy of the Morgan Stanley panic More hedge funds expected to succumb Overhead supply? Hedge funds may sell $200 billion more of assets Investors rush to quit buy-out funds Interesting - student interest in economics appears to be trending upward Why most analysts suck! Analysts are expecting the S&P 500 to show positive year over year earnings growth in the fourth quarter The analysts stay positive on energy stocks Energy ETFs still have room to fall China works toward free health care by 2020 Falling currencies impact international students Giving thanks for America's prosperity What's the top-selling beer in the world? Lots of sectors are in the green buy zone More infrastructure funding Health insurers see universal opportunity Health-care stocks for an ailing economy The world's top four ad agency companies count on Detroit's Big Three for as much as 6% of revenue Automakers look to federal sales incentives Citigroup scores! We can't afford the Citigroup deal JPMorgan is poised to nab a triple play at the top of the M.& A., debt and equities rankings DryShips' financials don't inspire confidence Holiday shopping with deflated stocks The top 10 best small companies according to Forbes This week's earnings calendar This stock screener is brought to by Zacks The best & worst stocks since last Thursday Why the NYSE TICK is watched my most traders A trading strategy with low drawdowns and consistent returns Multiple trend-following systems combined Using moving averages to manage risk Profiting from risk aversion Five steps to consistent profits To sustain enthusiasm and learning during the most challenging markets is a real accomplishment What you need to know about Wash Sales Some ETFs fall short on pricing Most improved ETFs Trader interest in single-stock futures hits a low The truth about brokerage commissions Scrimp on 401(k) now, pay dearly later How you should invest based on your age It's time to de-leverage your wallet Kiplinger's best online savings account: FNBO Direct Fiscally-responsible gift giving for kids Need a good real estate agent? These websites may help It's always a good time to learn something new. Universities with the best free online courses How to make a powerful first impression Traveling this weekend? 15 tech secrets for the serious road warrior How do farmers produce so many birds for Thanksgiving? Gone fishing — seriously… Need the cliff notes version? Great Summary can summarize text from any website or document Feeling stretch for time? How to make time for the most important things 10 tips for losing weight and living a long, healthy life Do you really want to be happy? If so, turn off the TV! "Choosing to be positive and having a grateful attitude is going to determine how you're going to live your life." - Joel Osteen

TALF Posted: 25 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Following the largest rally for the market in about twenty years, premarket futures suggest we're moving higher again today. While the economic data this morning wasn't too inspiring (Q3 GDP fell 0.5% & weak chain store sales), premarket futures pushed significantly higher on news that the Fed & Treasury remain hard at work. In the latest move, Paulson has created the TALF to target consumer lending. Premarket gainers: FNM, FRE, GGP, BHP, IDCC, DAKT, BBL, MT, SQNM, CTRN, ABB, JNY, SBLK, SAP, ALTH, HOGS, AAUK, TRIN, SCHW, GNK, CS, CIT, & RMBS. Premarket losers: RTP, CRK, JRJC, ACTU, AXA, IPAR, LM, ZNH, SHLD, SNE, ONXX, ZQK, SBUX, DHI, JASO, AZN, ADI, HTX, & TD. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will speak at 10:AM and we also have two more reports this morning - the Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge for November and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September. Given the tone of premarket trading, one would assume more focus will be on the latest moves by the government than the economic data. Believe it or not, the S&P has now moved by 6% in either direction for four consecutive trading days and more volatile action is likely to continue. Another big up move will push us back into short-term overbought territory so be careful out there if you're pressing new long positions. In fact, I'm not entirely convinced that we're set up for another big rally today although premarket futures clearly suggest we are. I'll have to wait and see how the market responds to Paulson at 10:AM. Go make it a great day!

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