Monday, November 24, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Monday Mailbag

Posted: 24 Nov 2008 03:11 PM CST

As usual, I had a lot of great questions to choose from for today's mailbag. In this edition, I will discuss the following:

  • Market Timing: Is Now The Right Time To Get Back In?

  • How To Find Which ETFs A Stock Is In

  • Are You A Stock Trader Or A Cheerleader?

  • Odds For The Market To Fall Significantly From Here

  • Volatility Is Here To Stay

  • What To Watch For In The Last Hour Of Trading

  • Oversold Conditions Remain Oversold, But.....

  • An "Obama" Indicator

  • Time To Revisit The Gold Trade?

  • The Folly Of Long-Term Forecasts

  • Keeping Tabs On Up Volume

  • Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

  • How To Improve Your Exit Timing

  • Insider Buying & Spotting Character Changes

  • Buy & Hold Only For Yields

  • Stashing Cash

  • Life & Times In Utah

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Bailouts & More Stimulus

Posted: 24 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST

Good morning. We are set to start Thanksgiving week on a positive note as Citigroup gets bailed out by the government and President-elect Obama introduces his economic team headlined by Tim Geithner at Treasury, Larry Summers as economist-in-chief and Peter Orszag as White House budgets director, and so on.

We also have some more news regarding TARP. Paulson is now considering using the rest of the money to stem foreclosures and to make it easier for households to borrow money while expectations grow for a huge stimulus package to be signed the first day of Obama's presidency. To put all of this in perspective, one estimate suggests that the money that's been pledged is equivalent to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the country.

Premarket gainers: C, OMRI, CE, FRE, F, LVS, MER, MS, BAC, JPM, FNM, GS, WFC, GM, BAC, CETV, PAAS, AAUK, SOLF, TASR, NXY, XTXI, CLNE, MT, AUY, FCX, BHP, FWLT, & NVDA.

Premarket losers: LFG, CACB, TEVA, CYBS, AVAV, TSN, GTE, STEM, NDAQ, PKX, HTX, VRSN, TSM, REP, CHL, & WYNN.

At 10:AM we have a report on existing home sales but the main focus today will be Obama's economic team and any news regarding further stimulus. Technically, it would be a victory just to see the market repair some of the damage we've seen over the past two weeks, perhaps moving back up to the 920 level in the S&P. Oversold conditions into this week should help, though volume will start to decline around mid-week due to the holiday and I expect continued choppy conditions overall.

Along with trading for charity this week, I'll be working on another mailbag post for today which I'll likely have after the closing bell. Let's make it a great week!

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