The Kirk Report

Another Horrible Week Posted: 21 Nov 2008 04:11 PM CST A late day super snapper allowed us to finish on a positive note in what was another horrible week for the market. For the week, the S&P 500 lost -8.39%, Dow -5.31%, Nasdaq -8.47%, and the Russell 2000 -10.95%. As we've seen in prior weeks, the "ultra" shorts were the top leaders. All of the following gained more than +20% on the week - SKF, TLL, SRS, RMS, SKK, SJL, SMN, SJH, SDK, SJF, SBB, TWM, MZZ, & SDD. As some of you already know - Thanksgiving week is one of my favorite weeks of the year. It is the week that I (along with a group of friends) compete with each other to give as much as possible to charity. In essence, every dime of profit we make from trading next week will go straight to the charity of our choice. For this year, I'll be trading for Remote Area Medical. I've talked about this charity in the past, but essentially they provide free health care services to those who are under-employed or under-insured. In fact, 60% of their programs are based in poverty areas throughout the United States. In spite of what has been a very challenging time for all, I'm very thankful to be able to do what I do for a living and share this journey with all of you. See you next week!

Q&A With Jeff Miller Posted: 21 Nov 2008 12:47 PM CST It is with great pleasure to have Jeff Miller, from A Dash Of Insight, to participate in this month's Q&A. Many of you know Jeff because I've linked to many (if not the vast majority) of his blog posts. In this Q&A we'll cover a variety of topics that will interest and help you.....[READ]

Up In Flames Posted: 21 Nov 2008 11:12 AM CST The latest and greatest fear - deflation The Federal Reserve put deflation back on the table Fed's Bullard says U.S. deflation is an issue Fed must face Fed's Lacker sees 2009 rebound Inflation is bad for stocks. The only thing worse is deflation U.S. Treasury's u-turn on TARP jolts credit markets Paulson goes on defense Paulson tries to rewrite his own history Borrowing gauge falls The world according to Hank Fed watch: policy adrift Default risk at new highs The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default surged to records around the world U.S. agrees to buy student loans We're now seeing a collateral squeeze Let's put the economic blame where it belongs - on ourselves Record-breaking data everywhere! More extreme conditions! Can the Dow go lower? I hope so! Fear Louise Yamada! Easy come as easy goes - the S&P 500 has now erased 100% of the bull market from 2002 to 2007 A closer look at S&P 500 stock performance yields some insights Indeed - the market is guilty until proven innocent S&P p/e ratios - how low can they go? "There seems to be no bottom. We have no tools that tell us where to go now." - Laszlo Birinyi The fair value for the S&P is at 700 "The long-term, intermediate and short-term views for the broad markets displayed by ETF and futures proxies are all bearish." -Clare White Many fund managers are now expecting a global recession to persist in the coming year More plunge protection team chatter Good luck with this - traders' machismo must be curbed Before the bust, these CEOs took money off the table Things never change - the bank gets bailed out and the CEO gets his parachute What's on the economic calendar next week? The recession will get worse according to University of Michigan economists "The Great Recession is now upon us and will be with us for some time to come. Stocks don't lie; people do." - Doug Kass What this depression will look like Lowry Research on current market conditions Time to ignore the stock market until February? Broken investors are finally throwing in the towel And here's more proof! Where's the pessimism? Divergence in T2108 According to the charts, the market has a lot of healing to do A nifty comparison chart of four bear markets This chart illustrates all major stock market corrections (15% loss or greater) of the last 108 years "In the year following the 10 largest bear markets in history, the Dow rises an average of 44%, with the leaders doing even better." - Michael Cintolo Stock signals! How to thrive when this bear dies Cash is king! U.S. financial system still needs at least $1.0 trillion to $1.2 trillion Banks back mandatory CDS clearing Harkin seeks to force all derivatives onto exchanges Regulators take steps to monitor some thrifts More than half of the corporations that defaulted on their bonds had private equity investments Within the next 12 to 18 months, there is going to be FHA-insurance Armageddon Rating downgrades drive up debt-rollover costs High-yield bonds yielding record highs After losses, pensions ask for a change "This is apparently the new American way. Companies screw up, get in trouble and then turn to the government to bail them out. No worries, the government can always print more money, right?" - Glenn Hall Maybe the Pope should sell a market timing newsletter PayPal to offer holiday credit lines Glitzy Greenwich feels hedge fund pain Fannie & Freddie suspend foreclosures Ascertaining value - there is no single accurate index of home prices The stock market graveyard An estimated 150,000 jobs have been lost by the financial sector worldwide, and more are expected in investment banking and trading Unemployment will reach 9% according to Goldman Sachs Surprise drop in power use delivers jolt to utilities Glutton for punishment? The case for buying oil stocks Another snapshot for commodities Bad times for biotechs that need cash to burn Dry-cargo rates have fallen by more than 90% as a five-year boom has turned to bust Everyone keeps trying to call the top in the dollar rally The dollar and equities part ways for now After this week's data, economists call for larger rate cuts from the European Central Bank Argentine president aims to nationalize $24B in pension funds Japan's acquisitive mood Mark Mobius punts Brazil BeSpoke's international snapshot PC makers embrace Core i7 chips in new desktops Intel to push out everything in 2009 Vishaal Bhuyan is helping to create a new market tied to life-insurance policies Health care analysts are gearing up for policy changes that could affect stocks throughout the sector At one point, Obama and Paulson talked every day for two weeks Obama and the Insider Effect Jim Cramer tells Obama how to save the market A free lunch for you is a painful cost for someone else Remember - the stock market performs significantly better when Congress is out of session By the way, if you like to follow politics and what's going on in Washington, I urge you to sign up for Mike Allen's playbook by email An estimate of car jobs in jeopardy is dubious Financial job losses may double to 350,000 by 2009 Goldman's gold standard is less golden A big Visa chargeback If you want to own Apple, you can now get it on the cheap The Senate begins a probe into the causes of the financial crisis Golden West under investigation Citron takes Lifetime Fitness for a workout Q&A with Costco's Jim Sinegal Bulkowski shares more than a few chart patterns A screen of REITs 5 stocks with a cash cushion 5 blue chips under $10 5 whipper snappers Confidence is everything in this game "The best traders aren't those who can take risk, but those who know how to mitigate it." - Jonathan Hoenig Three common trading mistakes Let the balance sheet be your guide Perhaps, we should just be more like Canadians! Louise Yamada: relative strength is key A test of Ablin's trend following strategy Market timing is impossible An asset allocation backtester! Attention bond investors! Here's a great resource for you - InvestinginBonds.com A very tough time for muni ETFs First active real estate ETF begins trading No kidding - ETFs are increasingly becoming the hedging and speculative mechanisms of choice ETF tax-loss harvesting: the good, the bad, and the ugly Congress has an eye on the tax break for your retirement A tax raise? You can bet on it! Threats of identity theft increase Where to stash cash at home 5 financial things to do before year's end Newly out of a job? Here's how to replace the health benefits What about a no-spend weekend? Preparing financially for the holidays Financial tools for difficult times Do you want to find the best prices online? Try Pricegrabber.com, NexTag.com and Shopping.com A number of sites list coupon codes. Try CouponCabin.com, RetailMeNot.com and CurrentCodes.com Fraternity launches harebrained scheme to fix economy "I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution." - Wernher von Braun

November Options Expiration Posted: 21 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. A bounce in overseas markets amid renewed expectations for additional rate cuts and other bailout speculation have set a positive tone this options expiration Friday. The newswires are relatively quiet and other than earnings from Dell, a board meeting at Citigroup, and chatter regarding what Obama will do for the automakers there's not much to work with other than extremely oversold conditions. Premarket gainers: DISK, FNM, SOL, CRM, FRE, SOLF, JASO, C, DELL, GM, LGND, ARUN, AU, AAUK, GOLD, BBL, MT, CS, DRYS, BHP, RIO, RTP, HMY, DB, JRCC, RMBS, IRE, BUCY, THC, TEN, NT, MTL, CDE, PBR, YGE, UAUA, HIG, GFI, CLNE, & RIMM. Premarket losers: ADSK, CSIQ, CE, ES, QCOR, FAF, ISIS, ANN, INT, & ESD. Much like yesterday, we'll likely see another wild trading session today. In any large snap back move, my initial upside target to clear is around 865 in the S&P. Anything less and not much will change from a technical perspective and that should be a relatively easy level to bounce to given how oversold we are and now price targets have been scaled down to S&P 400 to 600 area. Have a great Friday!

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