Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Mailbag

Posted: 12 Nov 2008 03:24 PM CST

Thank you for all of the wonderful questions! I had my choice of topics to cover and I'll cover the following in this edition:

  • A Three-Step Simple Moving Average Screen

  • Market Perspectives Beyond The Short-Term

  • Evaluating ETFs From Various Points Of View

  • Software For Keeping A Trading Journal & Notes

  • TA On Gilead Sciences

  • DeMark's TD Sequential Indicators

  • Using Williams %R

  • Leveraged ETFs vs Plain Vanilla Index Funds

  • Concerns Over Brokers & SIPC Protection

  • Obama Investing

  • Devaluation Of The Dollar

  • The Uncertain Future Of The Auto Industry

  • Investing In Closed End Funds

  • Using The Relative Strength Index (RSI)

  • Chat Rooms & Instant Message Opportunities

  • Working At Home & Doing Battle With The Refrigerator

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Consumer Confidence Remains Low

Posted: 12 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST

Good morning. Premarket futures are under pressure this morning and point to a weak start.

Among the notable headlines include Best Buy who reported that its same-store sales fell 7.6% in October amid "rapid, seismic changes in consumer behavior have created the most difficult climate we've ever seen." This report confirms other news that retail sales weakened further while consumer confidence remained near a 22-year low.

On the bailout front, American Express is seeking $3.5 billion in government aid and Nancy Pelosi said that General Motors is too big to fail.

Premarket gainers: MELI, GM, F, OCNF, ME, MGI, LEA, ACH, UIS, SAP, MHLD, CEPH, M, VOD, GNVC, CNQR, NICE, EBIX, AKAM, HL, MR, CHA, & LIZ.

Premarket losers: JASO, BBY, NTY, IPI, GU, STEM, PLD, BOBE, HOLX, AXP, GS, YGE, CSIQ, AAUK, ROCM, VPHM, DRYS, SOLF, FUN, ENER, CBG, MT, & AMZN.

Much like yesterday, we have nothing of significance on the economic calendar. However, there will be a few speakers to keep an eye on. At 10:30AM Hank Paulson will give an update on the financial rescue package, at 11:AM Fed's Donald Kohn speaks on financial services, and at 1:PM Fed's Stern speaks in Minneapolis.

With another decline in oil prices this morning, much attention will be placed on whether we can simply hold the recent lows without fully testing and breaking the October levels. If we can do that, at least on a short-term basis, it "should" set up for another rally into options expiration. I'd personally like to see more weakness, if not the stops cleaned out which are likely set near those October lows before that move, but let's take it one hour at a time like usual.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

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