The Kirk Report

Trade & Fade The Extremes Posted: 07 Nov 2008 05:23 PM CST While we started off November on the right foot, the post-election meltdown allowed the bears to win this week's battle. For the week, the S&P 500 lost -3.92%, Dow -4.09%, Nasdaq -4.27%, and the Russell 2000 -5.90%. There were some giant swings this week and to make money you had to trade and fade the extremes. As we've seen in prior weeks, the "ultra" shorts were the top leaders. All of the following gained more than +10% on the week - ProShares UltraShort Smallcap 600 ETF (SDD), ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors ETF (SSG), ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ETF (SJH), ProShares UltraShort Russell Midcap Value (SJL), ProShares UltraShort Russell 1000 Value (SJF), ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF (SKF), ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF (TWM), ProShares UltraShort Russell Midcap Growth (SDK), & ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services ETF (SCC). Next week I'll focus on sharing some charts with you among a few other things. We'll see you then!

Breaking Point Posted: 07 Nov 2008 01:09 PM CST Unemployment leaps to 14-year high! Once all the revisions are taken into account, the actual loss in jobs is at 939K - a 61% increase If you thought the jobs report was bad, imagine if they weren't cooking the numbers Biggest recession since WWII looms TrimTabs provides the latest on money flow Having a tough time this week? Just blame the hedge funds! More rate cuts are now expected $100 billion stimulus in the works Whoa! Take a look at the Fed's balance sheet! Fed pumps an additional $100 billion into commercial-paper market So much for proper disclosure - credit swap disclosure obscures true financial risk Firms say bailout plan lacks necessary clarity Bailout bucks to banks! Distressed firms try debt exchanges Banks' decision to spurn government aid raises questions U.S. explores its options with TARP Auto execs make the hard sell for bailouts GM sells U.S. a lemon Many are asking the government for help. Be careful what you ask for A simple question - is this the time to make a long-term bet on equities? More about Jeremy Siegel's strange claim - stocks are dirt cheap Jim Cramer's four reasons to be skittish Retailers report weak October sales Number of credit card offers dives Earnings estimates get slashed The Ted Spread as a leading indicator The hospital indicator! Another useless sentiment indicator! It seems like forever since we've seen an IPO Retail investors push trading to record levels Has anyone noticed that bullish sentiment seems correlated with age? Are investors really expecting the worst? Love reading these links? Then you'll also love being a member! Novembers in the market Yet another stat for this year's record book Understanding bear market price swings through history The 40 Year Cycle S&P 900 is key! Even more bottom calling... A towering economic to-do list for Obama Jeff Miller's message to Obama Recommendations for the Obama Administration Companies guess impact of new Obama Administration The Obama Agenda - time to redistribute Does Wall Street really prefer a Democrat or a Republican President? Many see multibillion dollar investment by Obama into clean energy Fund expert's top sector bets on Obama An All-Obama Portfolio Domestic ABCs Sy Harding is one of the few winners so far in 2008 Wall Street job cuts Private equity chief urges fees rethink The International Energy Agency says oil prices will climb back above $100/barrel Oil service firms warn of dangers of lower prices Global shockwaves roil Brazil's offshore plans Largest wind farm in the world halted by credit crisis IMF sees global 2009 recession Central banks in Europe cut rates sharply Zero rate world may lie ahead Chinese economy shows signs of fizzling Japanese equities are already priced for the ice age An interesting look at country default risk! Educational providers - a counter-cyclical industry? The current economy as seen through the eyes of Intel's CEO Post election stock and sector performance Almost Family with a stellar quarter Petmed bites back at recession Ford blows through another $3 billion Dirk Van Dijk's earnings scorecard StockScouter's 50 stocks for November Standard & Poor's 28 dividend aristocrats - companies that have boosted their payouts in each of the past 25 years—with top S&P STARS rankings 7 highest yielding stocks going ex dividend in November Stocks with earnings momentum Trader Mike provides 10 charts to watch Today's chart toppers 7 top stocks in the bargain bin Did you know the number of trades placed--not the amount of time spent trading--that best predicts success in markets? When should a trader cut position size & risk? Selling calls against stocks locked in a trading range can be a great way to generate steady income Some of the key analytical techniques of Tom DeMark Impressive signals from DeMark What is TRIX? Watch out for those full moons! Day of the week trading edge How the Dow Theory can help you How to hunt for clues for companies that will soon cut their dividend When can you trust economics papers? "Do yourself a favor. Just watch the market action. It will tell you want you need to know. Very often, the supposed news drivers which people think are creating the short-term moves in the market are mostly coincidental." - John Forman It's an amazing time to be playing the Stock Market Game The Wisdom of Great Investors Investing lessons from Benjamin Graham Do-it-yourself investors can't mimic large endowments or sovereign wealth funds, but they can learn about asset allocation from them How about a diversified ETF Portfolio? Only three funds have stayed positive for each of the last nine years Just because your mutual fund is under water doesn't mean the tax man won't pay you a visit again this year Prop desks largely depend on four different strategies to outperform the market More hedge fund performance numbers More chatter on the triple leverage ETFs Will Democrats tinker with retirement plans? It's time to put social security funds in the stock market? Splurges seem shameful and cheap is cool! swaptree is a place where you can trade books, music, dvds, or video games than you own How to make a spending plan If you like pumpkin bread as much as I do and have a Great Harvest Bread Co. nearby, be sure to pick up a loaf and try it out. You'll love it! The hedge fund business, explained This week's edition of the dumbest things on Wall Street Things that I can't friggin believe "It is often hard to distinguish between the hard knocks in life and those of opportunity." - Frederick Phillips This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

October Payrolls Fall 240,000 Posted: 07 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. October payrolls fell 240,000 and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1% to 6.5%. (September's payroll number was also significantly revised to -284K from -159K). In turn, premarket trading has been volatile, but currently suggest a positive start in spite of the jobs report and more disappointing earnings announcements. There's hope that the bad news is already baked in, but we'll see if that sentiment holds past the first hour of trading. Premarket gainers: NVDA, OSIP, AIG, SWKS, ABK, FSYS, LFG, EGLE, VTIV, FNF, TRLG, PCLN, ARMH, PEG, GOLD, CSIQ, PRGN, MIDD, FLR, SAPE, EBS, TBSI, SOLR, QLTY, WPRT, TKC, & CHU. Premarket losers: YHOO, WFC, GNW, INTG, SOMH, SAH, EFUT, UEIC, PODD, LVS, MTZ, ARAY, STV, HOV, ETFC, SFI, DIS, & WB. At 10:AM we have the pending home sales index and wholesale trade. Then at 12PM Fed Dennis Lockhart is scheduled to speak about the economy and at 3:PM we have the consumer credit report. The key for today is simply to shake off the bad jobs report and put in a higher low after the past two days. Premarket futures suggest that is a clear possibility, although I'd temper any excitement over early strength. I suspect there's a fair amount of overhead supply (i.e. sell interest) that we'll see come in but we won't know for sure until trading gets fully underway. At a minimum, 900 level in the S&P must be held in today's session. Have a great Friday!

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