The Kirk Report

All Things Considered Posted: 03 Nov 2008 01:33 PM CST Fed survey shows massive credit tightening continues The ECRI US leading indicator has crashed back below the lows seen during the last recession A record plunge in commodities may signal the U.S. is headed for the longest recession since 1981 Money flow! U.S. equity mutual funds had net outflows of $25.67 billion in October, after seeing a net $46.47 billion go out the door in September The average diversified mutual fund of U.S. stocks returned a negative -18.7% in October Being a stock market fund manager or strategist these days means always having to say you're sorry Economists remain under fire Fed's Lacker is still wary on inflation Fear of deflation lurks as global demand drops Get ready for stag-deflation! Welcome to Dystopia! Worst job losses since March 2003 are predicted Election and the economy The next U.S. president may find foreign investors demanding a significantly higher interest rate on U.S. debt 10 economic challenges for new president World leaders are already maneuvering for position ahead of the financial summit "Given the size of the government, you should give tomorrow's vote at least as much thought as you give to your investment strategies." - Dave Kansas "The sad truth is that we get the government that we deserve." - Jeffrey Saut Idle threats ahead of the election No bonuse$ for you! Why can't the U.S. government step in and help the automakers? The impact of presidential results are already largely discounted? According to the European Commission, the euro-zone economy is now in recession and will remain at a standstill for most of next year Dow theorist sees recession ending by mid-2009 Experts wonder how much another stimulus package would help The latest read from the ISM And auto sales! More homeowners are upside down Credit card losses are expected to soar to new highs 25% of shoppers say banks have reduced their credit card limits Slow payments squeeze small-business owners Financial crisis hits the Ivy League Buyouts backed by private equity fuel defaults JPMorgan launches an ambitious plan to renegotiate 400,000 mortgages Mortgage insurers see defaults rise US banks owe billions in pay and pensions to execs Let the lawsuits begin over Lehman's structured notes Rescue cash lures thousands of banks "Well before home prices started falling in 2006, lots of people were worried about the housing boom and its potential for creating economic disaster. It's just that the Fed did not take them very seriously." - Robert J. Shiller The market is running into resistance around the October 20th highs It is not at all unusual to see such bottoming occur over a period of weeks if not months following significant declines Looking ahead with hope and trepidation Why it's finally time to buy stocks The most positive part of the year for stocks arrives right on schedule The bears are only taking a nap? More about the Halloween Indicator! Barron's latest Big Money poll reveals unrelenting bullishness among many money managers Another perma-bear, Steve Leuthold, joins the bull camp However, the S&P won't bottom out until hitting 600! "I know it's anecdotal but I think more folks were dying to buy the market at every dip in September and early October than are dying to buy it now. My inbox continues to be filled with folks wanting to either know when the rally will be over (it just got started!) or they are annoyed at me because we didn't get a whack on Thursday and/or Friday. As I said last week, I am a buyer of dips and not a shorter of rallies now. - Helene Meisler Historic volatility! October - wild & wonderful! "Just as there are a lot of geniuses in bull markets, there are a lot of idiots in bear markets. And in both instances, not everyone is equally deserving of the title." - Daniel Gross There are no easy answers for our broken financial landscape October's pain turned into a jackpot for author and investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb "It is impossible to be a successful equity investor without the willingness to accept some amount of market risk when conditions appear frightening. If anything should be clear from the bubbles of recent years, the greatest risks are not when prices are depressed, the economy is weak, and investors are frightened, but rather when prices are elevated and an unendingly positive outlook for technology, or housing, or global growth, or private equity, or emerging markets, or commodities seems all but certain." - John Hussman Markets work best when investors are thinking for themselves The most out-of-consensus trade might be the one that bets on a return to normalcy Fallon's weekly stock charts review Comparing stock market crashes Fear & foreclosure in Las Vegas The looming super-subprime crisis - social security plus medicare The Shallowest Generation Capital-spending cuts delay oil sands projects 10 questions for T. Boone Pickens Measuring U.S. dependence on foreign oil A bull market is coming for lithium battery suppliers UBS lowers gold expectations again Look who pays for the bailout! How to Obama-proof your portfolio Making the case for consumer goods & healthcare ETFs Alan Farley picks some resilient stocks for the turnaround According to John Reese, bargains abound! Sell signals for active bear funds Rescuing Government Sachs Experts fear AIG is beyond saving KKR delays plans to go public (again) Callaway Golf is swinging the blues Q&A with Salesforce.com's CEO First Solar's peek at 2009 Verasun bites the dust Get a free cup of coffee at Starbucks tomorrow! The banks to bank on now The first week of November will be filled with earnings reports. Here's a must-read preview The best and worst performing stocks in reaction to earnings Do you enjoy reading these links? Then consider becoming a member! Best & worst stocks in the S&P 500 last month 11 stocks selling below cash Stocks trading below net current asset value A screen of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average and resisting downtrend How our brains affect our gains Trading Tick & AD Line Convergence Web research tool gives you the edge Investing 101: here's a primer on bonds Four rules for an unforgiving market The problem with diversification You want more leverage? ETFs with 3 times the juice David Fry's aggressive growth portfolio Sector ETFs: the best and the worst of October 2008 Jeff Miller's ETF update ETF spreads widen substantially IBD's ETF screener Seeking Alpha's ETF Selector Investors sour on Exchange-Traded Notes Socially responsible investing reaps rewards in an uncharitable market IRAs may be ripe for shift to Roth How to choose your 2009 employee benefits According to SmartMoney, five memberships worth signing up for The 5 best travel sites for cheap tickets Improve your life through personal fitness and personal finance Notifu allows you to send a message to an individual or group, know if the message was received, and gather responses to make quick decisions Sign the petition to stop junk mail! Unique technology that will show you what your future child with another person will look like! Have time for a little cat bowling? Another fun time waster! The future of trading? Brain power! "The longer I trade, the more I have grown to understand that no matter what a trader does - no matter how many indicators or timeframes he or she meticulously studies - a trader can never, never never predict with 100% certainty what the market is going to do next. I realize this is a statement some would call blasphemous. Surely, in all of my years of trading I have found a way to wait patient for the perfect setup that works nearly all the time, but really one never knows what's going to happen -that's the plain and simple truth." - John F. Carter This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Living The Dream Posted: 03 Nov 2008 09:21 AM CST As you probably know, I don't give many interviews and I turn down most, if not all offers to speak on TV and at conferences, but over the weekend, David Penn's interview of me at Trading Markets was published. In case you want to know what I said there, here's the interview.

November Begins Posted: 03 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures have been volatile and point to a mixed open. In the early going, the newswires are relatively quiet especially for a Monday morning. Although regulators had to close the 17th bank of the year, the credit markets continue to show steady improvement. In fact, Libor has dropped to the lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers on Sept 15th. Premarket gainers: DRYS, UBB, VMED, SRZ, PSUN, SOL, RIGL, LAMR, MIND, ENZN, PRGN, EGLE, FSYS, LVS, PRPX, CRNT, STEM, UAUA, OSK, DPTR, TIN, PLA, BWP, LNUX, HIG, TBSI, CROX, ESLR, BID, & MTW. Premarket losers: VSE, ARTC, GLRE, AMCC, NSTC, CRBC, WFT, TCL, VOD, TTM, HOV, RBS, SBUX, LFL, UBS, NSTC, & BTM. There will be a lot of data out this week including Friday's jobs report. But, for today at 10:AM we have reports on Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Like we saw last week, positive surprises in this data would help the market tremendously. As you probably already know, November has a positive track record and has historically been the strongest performing month for the S&P and the second strongest performing month for the Nasdaq. And, you're likely to hear lots of chatter this week about how the market will perform depending on who wins the election. No matter what you think about that, I think we'd all agree that it is a nice change from the panic/crisis mode that has been in place for the vast majority over the past couple of months. For today, we're a bit overbought and a slight pullback would be expected and probably a healthy thing to see especially if we move lower this morning and rally back this afternoon. Overall, we want to see a sure, but steady assault toward those key levels of resistance that would build confidence and bring in both individual and institutional buyers on the dips. Let's make it a great week!

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