Friday, October 24, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

One More For The Bears

Posted: 24 Oct 2008 04:23 PM CDT

Although we had our ups and downs, when all is said and done, the bears can go to the weekend with another win.

S&P 500 This Week

For the week, the S&P 500 declined -6.78%, Dow -5.35%, Nasdaq +9.31%, and the Russell 2000 -10.50% giving up all of last week's gains and then some.

The best performing ETFs since last Friday were the "ultra" shorts - FXP, SRS, EEV, SIJ, SJH, SKK, RRZ, SDK, SDD, TWM, SKF, & EFU - all of which gained more than +20% on the week. The worst performers were filled with "ultra" longs like the URE, UVT, & UYM - but it is clear that markets worldwide lead the way lower this week. Namely, South Korea (EWY), Latin America (GML), Mexico (EWW), Russia (RSX), & the BRIC (BIK).

Next week we have the Fed meeting (yawn) and the start of the Treasury's TARP program (ugh) not to mention the final trading week of October (yipee!). Needless to say, if you're up on the week and didn't lose money, pat yourself on the back and give yourself a golden star. However, if you're hemorrhaging losses and taking on volumes of water, take the weekend and figure out how to right the ship and fast.

See you on Monday!

Mailbag

Posted: 24 Oct 2008 03:13 PM CDT

My mailbag was overflowing this week with some really great questions. Thank you for sending them in! At last count, my inbox had over 600 requests so to say I'm a bit overwhelmed is a bit of an understatement!

For today's mailbag, I picked out quite a few at random to answer and I'll get to the rest in due time either directly through the next mailbag or via the links and other posts I provide at the website. Hopefully you'll find the reply to the questions I picked of help:

  • Using the Relative Strength Index

  • How To Build Watchlists From Value-Focused Screens

  • Trading In Pre-Market & After-Hours

  • Fighting Dominant Technical Trends

  • Direction Of The U.S. Dollar

  • Yen Carry Trade

  • Taleb's Black Swan

  • How I Was Positioned Ahead Of Today's Open

  • There Are No Sure Bets In The Stock Market

  • Credit Markets & Getting Out Of The Way

  • Early Sector Leadership

  • Trade Flashbacks

  • Over The Long Run We're All Dead

  • My Two Cents Worth On Shipping Stocks

  • Mad For Life Stocks

  • Cash Is No Loser In This Ball Game

This is a members' only post. To read, please login.

On The Brink

Posted: 24 Oct 2008 10:09 AM CDT

Limit Down

Posted: 24 Oct 2008 07:37 AM CDT

Good morning. Premarket futures are currently in limit down mode after falling -6.5%. Significant declines in overseas markets especially after the UK posted its first negative GDP figure in 16 years have sent markets crashing. From London's FTSE to Japan Nikkei we're down -7% to -9% across the board.

Premarket gainers: INFN, DVAX, DUG, EEV, FXP, SRS, SMN, SKF, TWM, SDS, MZZ, DXD, QID, SDD, REW, GAP, CLS, HNSN, SYNA, & HUN.

Premarket losers: BZH, XCO, UPW, CSUN, URE, ABK, JRCC, RHD, QCOR, ESLR, DTG, UYM, SOLR, DIG, NE, RSU, PHM, LEN, LVS, SIRI, HOV, VIP, & HK.

We're currently in crash mode and all but the most stubborn bottom callers will get flushed out in this move. As you might expect, they're already talking about trading halts that may occur today in response to the selling. In addition, Fed Funds futures are pricing in a larger rate cut for next Wednesday and there are already rumors of an emergency rate cut this morning as well. Although not all that important right now, at 10:AM we have the report on existing home sales.

Let's see how we open and whether the gap down holds past the first hour of trading. I'll be here to update with any perspectives as needed throughout the session.

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