Monday, October 20, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Money Links

Posted: 20 Oct 2008 10:57 AM CDT

    The Kirk Report
  • Bernanke endorses another wave of fiscal stimulus

  • World leaders to engage in series of summits

  • Rate cuts and fiscal stimulus are needed

  • Wall Street eyes earnings and looks for a bottom

  • Earnings forecasts are in upheaval

  • This week's earnings preview

  • The monster that ate Wall Street

  • "Tuesday could mark a major turning point for this dark chapter of the financial crisis. That's the date when holders of Lehman credit default swaps need to pay up, after the bankruptcy filing put those instruments into default. While Wall Street is bracing for the worst, anything less than a catastrophe may trigger a powerful wave of buying interest." - Alan Farley

  • Bank-equity program gets an accounting fix

  • The guys from Government Sachs

  • Bank of America's Ken Lewis expresses hope on bailout plan

  • Banks are braced for Lehman Brother's debt insurers' deadline

  • Prosecutors investigate trading in credit-default swaps

  • U.S. regulators are investigating whether investors manipulated end-of-day stock prices to avoid being forced by their brokers to sell holdings

  • The CBO estimates that the deficit in the current fiscal year will reach roughly $700 billion, up more than 50% from the previous year

  • 22 states currently face tax shortfalls

  • "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." - Thomas Jefferson

  • There is a silver lining

  • The Confidence Game

  • The Killer C's: a crisis of credit, confidence and competence

  • Memo to bankers - just say you are sorry!

  • It may feel as if the sky is falling, but things aren't as bad as they seem

  • "The meltdown will continue until it runs its course, over the next eight-nine years plus or minus, with 6-18 month 'mini bull market' rallies along the way, to allow insiders to take profits and sell short." - Harry Schultz

  • Former Vanguard guru is buying stocks

  • Is credit crisis over? Not so fast!

  • "Many investors who get out now will stay out until they've seen the market recover -- which will be too late to get back in." - Terrance Odean

  • A surprise increase in leading indicators

  • On Wall Street, eyes turn to the fear index

  • Poll finds high anxiety on economy this month

  • The art auction indicator

  • A thorough sentiment overview

  • Tech executives are feeling optimistic

  • SEMI book-to-bill slips to 0.76

  • How much is this market really worth?

  • Stock market value according to Tobin's Q

  • Still no buy signal in Bulkowski's timing indicator

  • Stocks may fall another 50%, but still time to buy!

  • "Regardless of how much further it might (or might not) drop, the stock market now abounds with so many bargains it's hard to avoid stepping on them. Out of 9,194 stocks tracked by Standard & Poor's Compustat research service, 3,518 are now trading at less than eight times their earnings over the past year – or at levels less than half the long-term average valuation of the stock market as a whole. Nearly one in 10, or 876 stocks, trade below the value of their per-share holdings of cash – an even greater proportion than Graham found in 1932." - Jeffrey Saut

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  • Analysts predict minimum 1 million barrel OPEC cut

  • Next stop for crude is $50?

  • Winds shift for renewable energy as oil price sinks

  • Against the odds, financial crisis helps stimulate the U.S. dollar

  • Young entrepreneurial Americans are doing something they have not done much before. They are leaving

  • A financial new world order?

  • How the world's most basic industries are coping with the crash

  • Brazil is bruised, but not broken

  • Don't fight the Fed in India!

  • Europe gets involved in race for OTC regulation

  • Chinese GDP growth slows!

  • A sharper than expected slowdown in China means trouble and not just for China

  • The number of distressed British businesses has more than doubled since the start of the year

  • Bleak economic outlook for Spain

  • Days of easy cash are over for private equity

  • A long-term look at 30-year mortgage rates

  • Consumer goods categories most vulnerable and immune to a recession

  • A brief look back at the 5 hottest trends of the past year

  • Chrysler/GM deal confronts obstacles

  • Microsoft expands advertising budget

  • Goldman makes bottom call on Applied Materials

  • 29 companies that sell for less than their cash

  • The best and worst earnings reports this season

  • 5 fast growers

  • Top-rated stocks that treat shareholders right

  • More moving average crossovers

  • Q&A with value investor Mohnish Pabrai

  • 4 ways to survive and thrive in these market conditions

  • Advice for fighting the herd mentality

  • The first loss is the cheapest!

  • "I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money." - Ed Seykota

  • Free mind mapping software (often a good tool for mapping trading strategies)

  • Why should investors get acquainted with bond yields

  • Bonds that protect against faster inflation may be the biggest bargain in the Treasury market

  • Understanding socially responsible investing

  • The end of buy and hold?

  • Strategies for harvesting tax losses in a highly volatile market

  • 4 smart money moves for a down economy

  • San Diego high school students must now take a crash course in financial literacy

  • How to tell if you're rich

  • Only 8% of millionaires consider themselves wealthy

  • StockTwits

  • Ticker Rain

  • Trading hand signals!

  • "Market bottoms are like recessions. You never know if you've seen one until you read about it in a history book. And by then, you've missed the battle anyway." - George Winter

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Credit Markets, Earnings, & M&A

Posted: 20 Oct 2008 07:46 AM CDT

Good morning. Markets are in rally mode as credit markets continue to improve and business on Wall Street starts to show signs of stability following some Monday morning M&A activity after Exelon made a $6.2 billion dollar bid for NRG. Rest assure, nothing restores confidence on Wall Street other than some M&A activity.


Premarket losers: ELOS, AMAG, SSCC, PRU, VE, AMAG, BGH, FRE, JLL, MAT, NTY, AMR, HRL, & AMX.

At 10:AM we have the Leading Indicators report and Bernanke is due to testify before the House Budget Committee on the economic outlook and financial markets. Then at 11:30AM Paulson will talk about the government's plan to buy bank capital and at 12:45PM we have Fed Reserve Governor Kroszner speaking about risk management at Maryland.

This week will be a big one for earnings reports and this morning we have mixed batch of reports and cautious guidance, which is expected. Needless to say, everyone will be watching to see how the market reacts to negative reports hoping that the bad news is already priced in along with any signs that the credit markets are really improving.

Let's go make it a great week!