Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The Kirk Report

The Kirk Report

Hope & Fear

Posted: 14 Oct 2008 12:19 PM CDT

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Lazy Portfolios

Posted: 14 Oct 2008 08:48 AM CDT

In a time when most feel, if not truly believe, that passive index investing has absolutely no place in this market any longer, I encourage you to visit the new tracking section for lazy portfolios at MarketWatch. Because I've covered these passive investment strategies in the past, many have asked me if there's a website that tracks their returns and they finally put one together for you to use:

Lazy Portfolios

At a minimum, these passive lazy portfolios will provide a benchmark for you to compare your own returns to. Also, if you've not already proven that you can time the market effectively and consistently beat these passive strategies, then you have no excuse but to implement them until you do. To get you started, MarketWatch has also put together 6 rules for you to follow.

My hope is that they'll expand this offering to include more passive strategies for readers to evaluate and track, but this is a good start.

Billions & Billions Flow Back In

Posted: 14 Oct 2008 08:00 AM CDT

Good morning. Yesterday's surge in optimism over the latest efforts by governments around the world to rescue the financial markets is still with us today in spite of chatter that the so-called smart money is staying on the sidelines.

The U.S. government has announced plans to buy $250 billion dollars worth of senior preferred, non-voting shares in 9 banks and expects thousands more. In addition, the FDIC will provide insurance for interbank lending and remove the $250,000 insurance limit on noninterest-bearing accounts.

Overseas markets are very strong (Nikkei soared more than +14% today alone) and premarket futures currently indicate a +3% to +4% gap open. Credit market indicators like the Dollar Libor are starting to pull back as expectations continue that these latest efforts will thaw the credit markets and restore confidence in the worldwide financial system.

Premarket gainers: MS, ABK, NCC, C, GS, AIG, BAC, FSLR, XL, MER, ETFC, MXWL, FNM, CMO, JNJ, SOV, JPM, GOLD, HST, IAR, ALU, X, TRN, CHK, MXIM, TOT, RTP, APWR, DRYS, FITB, NCOC, IPCS, F, GM, CY, MTL, HERO, SOLF, TBSI, & ESLR.

Premarket losers: RACK, ENG, LYG, GRT, TLAB, JCI, IFX, CHT, HXM, CME, ASML, WYNN, & PHG.

Other than the 2PM Treasury Budget, there's nothing else of significance on the economic calendar today. After the closing bell, attention will turn toward earnings from Intel among others.

As you might imagine, all eyes will be on the equity markets themselves and how much they can sustain the optimism and sheer momentum from yesterday. Just so you know, I'm already hearing expectations that all of last week's losses, if not more than that, will be recovered by the end of the week as the short-sellers are hunted down and killed on sight. We'll shall soon see.

Trade well out there today.

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