The Kirk Report

Don't Mess With Santa Posted: 10 Dec 2008 02:16 PM CST World Bank forecasts grim 2009 More scary predictions found in Bloomberg economist survey Business Optimism Index reaches all time low Small business owners broadly and sharply feel the impact of the recession Online spending is succumbing to the economic downturn The family daycare indicator Even in the grocery store, consumers are trading down Could the sports bubble be among the next to burst? California unemployment soars! "Home prices have to decline another 10% to 15% before they get back to pre-bubble levels." - Martin Feldstein For home buyers, $500,000 is the new $1 million 8.1 million foreclosures over the next four years according to Credit Suisse Carlos Slim argues that credit-card interest charges must be cut down The last thing we need is policy that encourages or incurs more debt History suggests that even the deepest downturns can create huge opportunities for companies with money and ideas Investors may draw the wrong lesson from history Elizabeth Warren is on the warpath Claw-back provisions become more popular Put the credit default swaps market out of its misery An efficient financial system is a small financial system The banks' loss is the classroom's gain Top 10 reasons for the credit crunch Capitalist Fools! The market has a proven ability to reinvent itself Calling on plunge protection The bloggers stay bullish! Isn't it too early for a Santa Clause rally? Not everyone can be Meredith Whitney What the Oracles of Doom think will happen next 8 really, really, scary predictions Ford Equity's model shows stocks to be very undervalued A stock may look tantalizingly cheap, but sometimes that's for good reason Using Tobin's Q Ratio, the S&P could fall another 55% The S&P 500 could gain 20% by the end of 2009 Always fun to read - the 10 worst predictions for 2008 Breadth indicators on their 5th attempt at a bottom Will third trendline break be a charm? The next obstacle is S&P 929 Did you know that the telecom sector has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average? What's appealing about Telecom ETFs? Hey, airlines are losing fewer billions Commodity traders grow weary of market swings Death of commodities greatly exaggerated Foreign-exchange markets have what investors want: liquidity Canada slashes rates to a 50-year low Deflation approaches for China A volume explosion for the DXO What if Steve Jobs ran one of the Big Three auto companies? Trib bankruptcy a Zell of a deal Cisco becomes an infrastructure play What are they shopping for at Dillard's? How Amazon's cell phone app can save you money at Best Buy, Target, and Wal-Mart Default risk for major banks and brokers Potash et others under fire Trade like Al Gore? Free stock scanning tools 5 stocks that are debt-free and paying big A stock screen focused on stocks moving higher amid heavy short interest Short Ratios 101 Testing the RSI(2) Strategy "If you don't manage your bankroll properly when the game turns ugly, you'll never stay on top." - Johnny Chan The Wisdom of Great Investors MonitorBankRates finds the best rates for your cash Another bank ripoff - overdraft protection The big questions for your 2008 taxes This economy calls for a serious financial discussion with family What are your 2009 financial goals? Five simple ways to save yourself hundreds of dollars a month What to say to a friend who's been laid off Network better though Zentact An interesting perspective Twas the Night Before Christmas "Invest a few moments in thinking. It will pay good interest." - Author Unknown This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Bailouts, Bad Bets, & Bottoms Posted: 10 Dec 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Premarket futures are in positive territory following news of progress toward a $15 billion dollar auto plan. There are some other interesting talking points this morning as well. Namely, news that Meredith Whitney is still as bearish as ever but her fears now are focused on the U.S. consumer. The Fed is also thinking about issuing its own debt for the first time ever so that it can "stabilize financial markets" as the panel overseeing the TARP is expected to be critical on the mismanagement of the bailout. AIG faces another $10 billion dollar loss on some bad bets and mortgage applications fell by 7.1% last week after soaring last week. Premarket gainers: GNW, RTP, DRYS, EXM, EGLE, PWE, OCNF, NM, SBLK, TBSI, ALXA, ARST, BBL, BUCY, JASO, GOLD, DYN, F, GM, YHOO, CETV, BAS, SRZ, ES, SWIR, FSLR, CPE, & BHP. Premarket losers: ERTS, NT, CAVM, EK, AIG, AXP, FMCN, ARNA, ALD, PCR, AXL, JBLU, SFI, & GCI. Today's economic calendar has three reports - Wholesale Inventories (10:AM), EIA Petroleum Status (10:35AM), and Treasury Budget (2:PM) but none of them are expected to be market movers. Even with yesterday's pullback, we are still overbought and likely to see some sloppy consolidation between S&P 820 to S&P 920. As you know, in recent days none of the negatives seem to sway sentiment very much (yesterday's decline was more about overbought conditions than anything else in my view) and that's likely to continue as the market seems convinced that we've seen the bottom (at least for 2008). After all, to expect this year to close at or near its yearly lows seems grinch-like and few are willing to go there even in this bearish environment. Go make it a great day!

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