The Kirk Report

The Big Bad Bear Trap Posted: 13 Nov 2008 04:25 PM CST You have to love it when the market plays according to script. After busting through recent supports & lows, the bear trap was sprung and we rallied back hard for big gains across the board on heavy volume. In fact, it was truly fitting that we closed at the "911" level on the S&P. You may hate this market and everything about the economy, but you can find some nice trades out there if you're patient. Today's move is proof of that. Of course, another day like today and we'll be back to overbought territory again, but it sure is fun playing and profiting from these wild swings as greed turns to fear and back again. After today, I've earned a day off and I am going to take one tomorrow. A good friend (you know who you are) sent me a golf certificate for a round at Coral Canyon and I'm taking full advantage of it tomorrow. I'll be back on Monday to tackle another option expiration week. Until then, trade well my friends.

Where's My Bailout? Posted: 13 Nov 2008 11:41 AM CST A change of plans! Hank's credibility takes another hit with rescue-plan reversal Expanding the $700 Billion Bailout…to $1 Trillion Confusion as Tarp fails to ease clogged markets Treasury considers private role in TARP Want some TARP cash? Sign here! Lobbyists swarm the Treasury for piece of bailout pie Where's MY bailout? Fed said to seek oversight of credit-default swap clearinghouse Libor drops, but private lending remains paralyzed US regulators crack the whip on banks Here's a thought - what about having a bailout exit strategy? "It seems to me that the planets are perfectly aligned now so that another major bubble is going to form. This is going to be the government bubble." - Richard Moore The last chance to stop the bailouts! According to Jim Cramer, we need major failures in order to rebuild Nobel economists offer first aid for global economy U.S. banks will lose $450 billion more in two years Credit losses may exceed even dire estimates of $1.4 trillion Or maybe only $1,000 billion! As the government bails out the banks with our money, they turn right around and stick it to the little guy Bank CEO payday draws more fire Could bank rules end the fair value debate? Not to mention the moral hazards which abound Worst is yet to come for credit-card losses U.S. companies ask Congress to suspend rule on pension payments And some firms suspend their 401(k) match Everyone agrees - worst economy ever! How stock picking has changed "The idea of making a killing in stocks has vanished. People just want to escape." - Jason Kelly The Financial Crisis, from A-Z History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes Merrill Chief sees shades of 1929 The Analogy To 1987 What about the next great depression? Recession deniers peddled the same lame excuses Why there so much volatility? Did you know that stocks now lag T-bills for the trailing 12-year period? The rationale behind shorting treasuries Is now the time to buy stocks? 3 reasons to wait for a rally What sentiment data are saying about finding a bear-market low Some seasoned technical analysts are looking for an intermediate-term rally, but not much more Next week is expiration week and according to Stock Trader's Almanac, the week before Thanksgiving the Dow has been up in 12 out of the last 14 years The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving averages remains very low Through the lens of DeMark price exhaustion techniques, we are nearing a potential turnaround point for the next few weeks How can the market go up when these stocks are breaking down? "Beware of those who say we've hit the bottom." - Nouriel Roubini Fears over hedge fund redemptions are overblown Tough times for Tontine It's time to trim the hedgies! Was philanthropy, like the housing and financial markets, riding a bubble that has finally burst? How about the art bubble? Sotheby's art auction falls short The credit crunch goes mainstream Wow - only 21,397 homes are for sale on Countrywide Wall Street's war against Christmas continues Holiday sales will only be down 1%? Advertising forecasts don't anticipate a deep recession At least it is a bull market for hypnotherapy! "Stocks in the West are still expensive on any historic valuation method while bonds are going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20 years." - Jim Rogers The Global Dow is a new gauge of international business growth No place to hide! Dubai's housing boom has ended Very interesting - China tells firms not to rush into overseas buyouts Why Canada's banks don't need help Bank of England signals more rate cuts as economy shrinks Fiscal crisis gives Argentines that old sinking feeling The World Bank is set to provide up to $100 billion in new aid to developing countries Iceland continues to wait for rescue funds World business leaders back more regulation The root cause of the crisis was a widespread undervaluation of risk The best recession-proof jobs But don't inflate your resume credentials! The bullish case for gold Gold may top $1K in three years Airlines get no love from falling oil Here's why Buffett loves utilities No one climbed the list of American billionaires faster than Sheldon Adelson. And this year no one is falling any more quickly WEO calls for Global Energy Revolution IEA cuts oil demand forecasts As global oil prices fall, big producers in the Middle East have been revising spending plans Very interesting - making waves in power You can get a lot of things right and still lose big Cuomo subpoenas Bank Of America Skeptics present another obstacle for GM Why GM can't survive bankruptcy Goldman Sachs' CEO says firm won't change focus Time to buy Radian? Top rankings for biotech & generic drug companies Recent winners! Safe companies are under attack by short sellers Osterweis and his team seek companies with free cash flow, plus dividends and stock buybacks 8 big company stocks with micro-cap prices Chris Perruna's three stocks to watch Cash is king stocks 5 stocks guilty of hoarding cash Six stocks with improving sales & profits 6 stocks paying generous dividends 5 stocks that look completely worthless Piqqem's top rated stocks S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages MACD & RSI crossovers Zacks' custom stock screener "You can't learn to operate under pressure unless you rehearse proper trading practices while you are under pressure." - Brett Steenbarger Emotional swings while trading Support & resistance lines - are they still valid? It is no accident that many top options traders and investors are also world-class bridge players Go long during Erin Burnett! Don't forget your shorts! New ETFs provide triple whammy Target-date funds finally get competition Attention fund investors - a new website with research to help The death of buy and hold? Now, you too, can trade derivatives Life settlements are drying up Thought you couldn't start a company during a recession? These companies made it big by doing just that Charitable donations, made simpler The bright side of this mess - deep discounts from retailers A new way to find low prices online! Lobster anyone? Uncrate is a web magazine for guys who love stuff Free up time by "globalizing" all of the tasks that take you away from the market! Here are three services to consider: Tasks EveryDay, Hire VirtualAssistants, & GetFriday Good things come to those who plan Filtrbox: more knowledge, less noise "The secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes." - Benjamin Disraeli

Need I Say More? Posted: 13 Nov 2008 10:38 AM CST

Jobless Claims, Foreclosures, & More Posted: 13 Nov 2008 08:30 AM CST Good morning. Along with volatile trading action overseas, premarket futures here have been the same although currently in negative territory following more bad news on the economy. In the latest read, jobless claims rose much higher than expected, foreclosures are up +25%, and a number of companies either announced earnings below expectations and/or reduce their guidance. Combine that with recent changes to TARP and investors are having a tough time figuring out what to do next. Premarket gainers: AMAG, FTBK, XL, CBG, SOL, NTAP, PRGN, BYD, CDE, LVS, MT, FOE, CNB, URBN, HL, RDN, CSUN, NT, TKC, UA, LIZ, GM, & TRIN. Premarket losers: CROX, FEED, GA, JNS, MPEL, TMA, LCRD, APWR, COIN, WCG, LNC, YGE, DPS, STP, NVDA, OFG, INTC, DELL, STM, EBS, BHP, UBS, BP, APEI, & NSM. Today's economic calendar remain light with only the weekly energy inventory report at 10:35AM and it is not expect to be a market mover. Instead, the headlines and technicals will drive the action. As I said last night, I'm looking for a bear trap setup on a breakdown from these support levels as we push back into oversold conditions. Obviously, I'll need to see a strong reversal from the intraday lows and volume to increase in that turnaround if that should pan out today or tomorrow. Go make it a profitable day!

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