The Kirk Report

Sector Tracking Posted: 22 Oct 2008 12:40 PM CDT I'm often asked how I keep track of sector movements and, in the past, I've offered many examples. But, one free way is to simply visit Google Finance which offers a convenient sector summary which appears at the bottom of the page: What I like most about this offering is that if you click through the sectors, you'll be taken to separate pages specific to that industry. For example, if you click on "Basic Materials," you'll see not only a nice chart for that industry in comparison with the S&P 500, but you'll have convenient links to news in the sector as well as the top gainers, losers, most actives, etc. You can also dive down into subcategories. Check it out!

Times Are Good Posted: 22 Oct 2008 12:19 PM CDT Needless to say, times are good for those with cash in their pockets. Case in point, my wife and I purchased two new cars over the past few weeks - a Buick Enclave & Chevy Mailibu - at a substantial "fire sale" prices. In fact, the deals we received were so significant that I actually felt bad for the dealership. In complete contrast with other car buying experiences, the people we purchased the vehicles from went over and beyond what we've ever seen to make sure we were more than satisfied (i.e. free oil changes, weekly car washes, extended warrantees, free accessories, etc.). The clear upside from all of the economic upheaval that we've seen is that businesses are again appreciative to have us as customers and those with cash have the opportunity to get some great deals. While no one wants to spend money right now in such uncertain times, if you've been putting off some of these big ticket purchases for awhile, you may want to go shopping. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by what you find.

Running The Numbers Posted: 22 Oct 2008 11:42 AM CDT "We don't have visibility, so there will be a lot of volatility.'' - Guillaume Duchesne Banks face more CDO writedowns Mass layoffs highest since 9/11 What is a recession (and are we in one)? U.S. moves toward more stimulus Can we really afford another economic-stimulus package? New realities of a pay-as-you-go world How will the US economy grow when 70% of its growth is based on consumer spending, yet the US consumer is more focused on paying down debt then spending money? Are we there yet, Daddy? The recession, the credit crunch, the housing collapse and the bear market have not run their course "It is still too early to make a wholesale commitment to buying equities as corporate profits could easily fall by 30% in a "quite unpleasant" recession." - Ewen Cameron Watt, BlackRock The Starbucks recession indicator "Because of the greater volatility in a bear market, shorts generally should be traded more aggressively than longs would be in a bullish environment." - Brian Shannon Can volatility history teach us anything? Still, here are seven reasons to be bullish Five reasons for optimism Top 10 reasons why this is not the 1930s The key ingredient for a stock rally Looking for the S&P 500's Price/Earnings Ratio? Take your pick! First rates peaked, then stocks, then commodities. And now we wait for the bottom pattern Inflation has subsided, but for how long? Last time this market-timing indicator was more bullish was in 1982 Why the lack of transparency in the bailout is a big problem Bernanke & Volcker jockey for top job Do you enjoy reading these links? Then consider becoming a member! California home sales revive, but not without intense pain "12 million U.S. homeowners owe more than their homes are worth, compared with 6.6 million at the end of last year and slightly more than 3 million at the close of 2006." - Mark Zandi The next debt explosion How LIBOR threatened to destroy the global banking system CDO investors face losses of up to 90% Yet another video to understand the financial crisis The credit crisis as Antarctic expedition 14 reasons Main Street loses big while Wall Street sabotages democracy Clusterf#@k to the Poor House The bloggers stay bullish! Panic is not the same as capitulation A technical checklist for signs of a market recovery All eyes on the coiled spring! The problem of forced insider stock sales The other side of the trade: bear trap Hedge funds: defensive in tone, aggressive in strategy Timely questions for value investors 10 trends for long-term gains Big currency bets backfire Paulson praises China's cooperation "It seems to me that frailty we have seen in the western economic and financial system in the last year will catapult China along the path to supremacy." - Tom Scollon Merrill Lynch launches BRIC indicator Funds investing in the BRIC economies have plummeted by 60% Sarkozy proposes plan to keep industries out of foreign hands Argentina default looms, pension seizure roils market Pakistan asks IMF for loan to avoid defaulting on debt Saudi Arabia injects cash into banks Panic grips oil-rich governments dependent on high prices Swiss hedge fund industry to grow as crisis bites Latvian central banker says credit markets may soon calm Shattered illusions of liquidity around the world Glory days fade for U.S. farmers Believe it or not, regional-bank stocks are up 20% since mid July Banks are using your tax dollars for M&A CEO pay at the 9 government-owned banks Business returns to normal on Wall Street - Merrill's Kraus gets a buyout bonanza Clearly there has been a lot of bottom fishing going on! Behind Apple's impressive quarter The growing frustration of eBay sellers Wachovia suffers nearly $24 billion loss Government Sachs recommends selling Citigroup and buying Morgan Stanley GM in hunt for Buffett-style capital injection Another take on Emergent BioSolutions Best Buffett buys Debt-free dividend stocks These 10 banks have high Texas Ratios, a comparison of troubled loans to capital, which can be an early warning sign of stress Screening for value like Benjamin Graham Kevin Matras shares his value screen Stock-picking lessons from a pig farmer Five tips for buying stocks in bad times Stocks that are paying dividend yields of greater than 8% along with other attractive fundamental attributes Stocks with the lowest estimated PEG ratios in the Russell 1,000 Top 10 Dow stocks by PEG Top 200 stocks in Canada "The real key to successful trading is to obtain the greatest possible reward-to-risk tradeoff. Big returns off of small risks lead to long-term profitability. Big returns accompanied by large risks invariably ultimately lead to large losses. - Jay Kaeppel Avoid stress when managing exits In times of stress, we tend to anchor our thinking in the most salient pieces of information What to do when you get that miracle trade Discount Rate Calculation Find the winners in the sea of ETFs Despite recent pullbacks, biotech ETFs continue to outperform the market What's up with those alternative energy ETFs? In the future, asset allocation could need to be turned completely upside down Evidence suggests that jumping right in with your money may generate better results than investing gradually over time Mutual fund investors face risk of a tax hit despite large losses According to a new study, the rich cheat more on taxes America's luxury homes, downsized! What do you need and want in a car? The best keyboard on the planet. Period. A free program to help you get things done! Another program to help you track your investments Trade-Ideas goes mobile! Tweet what you $pend Capture thoughts, create to-dos and set reminders with a simple phone call Dollar bill sends Wall Street into frenzy "He who learns but does not think is lost. He who thinks but does not learn is in great danger." - Confucius

Gloomy Guidance Posted: 22 Oct 2008 07:44 AM CDT Good morning. Futures suggest another rough day for the market as investors sort through the latest batch of earnings reports. Much like yesterday, the reports were not as bad as the forward guidance as most companies are keeping expectations low. Also contributing to the negative sentiment this morning is weakness in overseas markets and news that Samsung withdrew its offer to acquire SanDisk due to "uncertain business conditions." Premarket gainers: AAPL, BRCM, MICC, SPLS, DTG, CAR, PAS, CBL, BKC, AZZ, CREE, VMW, EMC, YHOO, MCD, BSX, NSC, RJET, ABK, NITE, ATLS, NT, FEED, NUAN, & AMLN. Premarket losers: SNDK, IPI, GOLD, ERIC, GSX, CENX, ACGY, MDCO, PPDI, MKSI, PPDI, SQM, WB, CVH, SIAL, BBL, CX, PCX, KND, BHP, BP, CF, MRK, KMB, T, BA, GSK, & RIO. We only have two reports on the economy - mortgage applications - which were at an 8-year low and the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report which will come out at 10:35AM. Oil prices are down 4% this morning. The weakness we're seeing in the futures is probably reflective of declines in overseas markets, but clearly there's continued concern about whether expectations are low enough given the gloomy guidance by so many companies. If the market has found a true bottom, we should see stocks rally on this news rather than continued selling. Have a wonderful Wednesday!

You are subscribed to email updates from The Kirk Report To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email Delivery powered by FeedBurner
Inbox too full? Subscribe to the feed version of The Kirk Report in a feed reader.
If you prefer to unsubscribe via postal mail, write to: The Kirk Report, c/o FeedBurner, 20 W Kinzie, 9th Floor, Chicago IL USA 60610