The Kirk Report

Hope & Fear Posted: 14 Oct 2008 12:19 PM CDT U.S. pulls the trigger Statements by Paulson, Bernanke, Bair Kashkari leaps from obscurity to lead role in rescue A momentous power shift toward Washington and away from Wall Street Democrats as well as Republicans expect more government regulation of the financial sector in the future Lehman's fall caused $300 billion in losses globally Barclays chief warns rivals will be hobbled by state intervention Bailout plan could cost $3 trillion "The government's most recently floated proposal to take direct equity stakes in banks makes it even more painfully clear that Uncle Sam is no longer a referee but a player in the game, moving the pieces and writing the rules as we go along." - Jonathan Hoenig Institutional investors are returning to money-market funds Anxious investors are flocking to the safety of certificates of deposit Market observers who have been wondering if last week's big decline represented "capitulation," got a bit of an answer this morning In Chicago, they trade fear like any other commodity Hedge fund pros seek to explain to investors what went wrong and they they are now doing about it Where did all of that money you lost in the market really go? GMAC lending rule excludes even those with sterling credit Is General Motors too big to fail? Too bad the government can't cancel third quarter earnings season Markets are just organized craps Kevin Klombies shares a few charts According to John Hussman, stocks are now measurably undervalued Stocks are on sale! Weighing the bull case vs. the bear case Q&A with Jeremy Grantham Kevin Depew provides five things you need to know Everyone agrees that we're screwed...so was that the market bottom? What kind of a bottom was Friday? Are we seeing just another bear market rally, or definitive floor? "Getting happy about an up day is as unproductive as getting upset on a down day." - Roger Nusbaum There is a case to be made that the averages will hit bottom sometime in the next few months, even if the economy is in the middle of a recession Significant bear markets since the Great Depression in the Dow S&P 500 performance during recessions "While we may have seen the bottom on Friday, I strongly suspect that we will go back down and retest those levels. The next decline is likely to be more slow and grinding, and will separate out the weak companies from the strong." - Dirk van Dijk "Sectors that best resisted the market downturn this month are prime candidates to lead once the market gets back on its feet." - Michael Kahn How to energize your portfolio This is a traders' paradise, but investors beware! "The harder they fall, the more I smile." - John Schwartz Is America ready to lead in the race for new technology? Watch for privatizations overseas The U.K. corporate pension time bomb Investors worry emerging nations will default on debt According to Merrill analysts, gold could hit $1,500 A bull market is expected for the OLED industry Thin computing attempts a comeback of sorts GeoEye is still attracting some attention Morgan CEO goes on a big mack attack Top homebuilder short-squeeze plays Morningstar's favorite healthcare safe havens S&P 500 stocks that are NOT oversold The difference between cash and income is more significant now than ever How to identify and trade an important trend day The overwriting strategy works in market surges that may fade quickly 5 trusty trading lessons Eliminating emotion from trading is both impossible and undesirable Risk/Reward in Trading Money Management using the Kelly Criterion Position sizing calculators! The fate of the average investor When to utilize a price-to-sales ratio Have you written down your goals? In spite of challenging times, Teresa Lo's strategic performance portfolio is outperforming the competition "All we need to do is stick to the long-term indicators, such as the 200 and 150 day moving averages to know when it is safe to invest with a long-term time frame again. When a stock or market is below these moving averages you can't try to be a buy and hold investor." - Michael Swanson ETFs weather the market turmoil well How safe are your ETFs? New indexes meld frontier with emerging markets How retirees can ease pain following market crash Tax free IRA withdrawals are coming soon? Now more than ever, dig out of debt! Want a new search engine? Try cuil Pure stupidity - how people are keeping up appearances in the credit crunch Weird Al is back! "Those who know how to win are much more numerous than those who know how to make proper use of their victories." - Polybius This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Lazy Portfolios Posted: 14 Oct 2008 08:48 AM CDT In a time when most feel, if not truly believe, that passive index investing has absolutely no place in this market any longer, I encourage you to visit the new tracking section for lazy portfolios at MarketWatch. Because I've covered these passive investment strategies in the past, many have asked me if there's a website that tracks their returns and they finally put one together for you to use: At a minimum, these passive lazy portfolios will provide a benchmark for you to compare your own returns to. Also, if you've not already proven that you can time the market effectively and consistently beat these passive strategies, then you have no excuse but to implement them until you do. To get you started, MarketWatch has also put together 6 rules for you to follow. My hope is that they'll expand this offering to include more passive strategies for readers to evaluate and track, but this is a good start.

Billions & Billions Flow Back In Posted: 14 Oct 2008 08:00 AM CDT Good morning. Yesterday's surge in optimism over the latest efforts by governments around the world to rescue the financial markets is still with us today in spite of chatter that the so-called smart money is staying on the sidelines. The U.S. government has announced plans to buy $250 billion dollars worth of senior preferred, non-voting shares in 9 banks and expects thousands more. In addition, the FDIC will provide insurance for interbank lending and remove the $250,000 insurance limit on noninterest-bearing accounts. Overseas markets are very strong (Nikkei soared more than +14% today alone) and premarket futures currently indicate a +3% to +4% gap open. Credit market indicators like the Dollar Libor are starting to pull back as expectations continue that these latest efforts will thaw the credit markets and restore confidence in the worldwide financial system. Premarket gainers: MS, ABK, NCC, C, GS, AIG, BAC, FSLR, XL, MER, ETFC, MXWL, FNM, CMO, JNJ, SOV, JPM, GOLD, HST, IAR, ALU, X, TRN, CHK, MXIM, TOT, RTP, APWR, DRYS, FITB, NCOC, IPCS, F, GM, CY, MTL, HERO, SOLF, TBSI, & ESLR. Premarket losers: RACK, ENG, LYG, GRT, TLAB, JCI, IFX, CHT, HXM, CME, ASML, WYNN, & PHG. Other than the 2PM Treasury Budget, there's nothing else of significance on the economic calendar today. After the closing bell, attention will turn toward earnings from Intel among others. As you might imagine, all eyes will be on the equity markets themselves and how much they can sustain the optimism and sheer momentum from yesterday. Just so you know, I'm already hearing expectations that all of last week's losses, if not more than that, will be recovered by the end of the week as the short-sellers are hunted down and killed on sight. We'll shall soon see. Trade well out there today.

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