The Kirk Report

Thoughts From The Bunker Posted: 08 Oct 2008 01:25 PM CDT "What's happening is people are crawling into a bunker and pulling an iron sheet over their heads because they think the sky is falling." - William Ackman No end in sight So, will coordinated rate cuts do the trick? Sadness sweeps the street The IMF outlook As dire as the times may seem, history isn't about to repeat itself Some thoughts and reasons to consider buying here While others think the S&P is headed for 800 Short-term eyes on S&P 960 For what it is worth, during the average bear market, the S&P has declined 36% "Never miss an opportunity to just shut up." - Reese Witherspoon Fidelity, Vanguard, and T. Rowe Price join Treasury Department's guarantee program for money-market funds Retirement funds threatened with $2 trillion loss And, you thought September was bad! "I cannot give you specific investment advice, since I don't know your personal situation. But I do know this. If you've not been in stocks, this is the best opportunity to get into the market that we've seen in many years. Yes the market may decline some more. But it *will* turn around, it always does. Banks will continue to lend, companies will make products and we'll buy them. Capitalism does work. This may not be the bottom of the market, but it sure as hell ain't the top." - Don Steinmann Why you can't make money even if you know a crash is coming We've now entered a new stage of the financial crisis: the blame game McCain & Obama square off over how to fix the economy Handicapping the next Treasury secretary 8 bold initiatives we need to right the ship The M.B.A. indicator Dow Theory's Schannep turns bullish Stocks are close to fair value? Crazy p/e ratios! TraderMike shares another indicator that's off the charts Consumer borrowing falls for the first time in a decade Nearly 1 in 6 homeowners are now under water But some people are buying some foreclosures Losing your head over your house Some interesting datapoints Hey, there's no auto credit crisis! The argument against buying healthcare, tobacco, and consumer goods The basic price of shipping a large container of goods from Asia to Europe takes a dive Something to keep on your radar China now to the rescue? Trading in sovereign credit default swaps has provided rich pickings Run, don't walk from Treasuries Can GM & Ford survive? What's up with Laclede? Stock picks from the Value Investing Congress 6 places to be according to Kevin Matras 7 stocks with improving profit margins 6 stocks baited for bottom fishers "By focusing on what we *can* control--how we trade, how we invest, how we plan for the future--we are best able to cope with whirlwind events that we cannot control." - Dr. Brett Steenbarger We have met the enemy, and it is us During these times, remember the power of positive thinking How to prevent a stress meltdown Days of the week performance Moon phases and stock market performance What happens after the market closes has never been so important to investors The number one biggest mistake in all of trading As the financial markets swoon, municipal bonds are seeing record highs More ETFs bite the dust In crisis, financial advisers have more questions than answers Depending on your age, what you should do now to protect yourself 10 reasons why most people aren't rich Many Americans facing higher taxes this year just got a reprieve Glowing' jellyfish grabs Nobel The best national parks for a fall visit Tiger Woods chats about his new golf course in Baja New stock market terms Stock market crash photos "The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different.'" - Sr. John Templeton This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Rate Cuts Around The World Posted: 08 Oct 2008 08:00 AM CDT Good morning. With markets around the world falling precipitously and investors clamoring for rate cuts, this morning the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, Swiss National Bank, and U.S. Federal Reserve finally gave up their inflation concerns and made a 50 basis point coordinated interest rate cut. The Federal Fed Funds rate is now at 1.50%, and the discount rate is at 1.75%. Given the current sentiment, you probably won't be surprised to learn that premarket futures, while spiking higher on the news, have since fallen back as people doubt that these cuts will save the world. Premarket futures currently indicate we're set for at least a -2% to -3% drop at the opening bell. Premarket gainers: RBS, NRF, PSPT, OMRI, ACGY, BZH, NCC, LNN, BCS, LDK, AIG, FRE, C, ETFC, GM, GOLD, LYG, ZZ, GFI, DROOY, YRCW, FDRY, AAUK, ASTI, JASO, CSUN, TAXI, UMPQ, TKS, BOOM, SLQ, & RS. Premarket losers: BAC, AA, MON, STEI, DELL, NTGR, MER, CZZ, VVUS, JCP, ACH, RIO, ISIS, AA, PBR, AOD, MOS, TELOZ, DRYS, COST, CLNE, ENER, CENX, SQNM, DNDN, & GIGM. Other than reaction to the rate cuts, at the 10:AM hour we have reports on pending home sales and the EIA Petroleum Status report. These reports will not be market movers, because everyone's focus will remain on the performance of markets around the world and the rate cuts. Needless to say, this is about as bad as it gets (and I've ever seen) and it isn't going to be an easy day out there. The good news is that we probably need to see a sell the interest rate cut decision trade as we want to see every single hope eliminated from this environment. In the end, we want everyone to feel like this market is going to zero and no matter what happens, they have to sell everything. The lesson we've learned from this price action this week is that this market can't bottom with any hope left and this day has the potential to finally let that happen.

No Prisoners Posted: 07 Oct 2008 07:11 PM CDT While Bernanke and the plunge protection team fiddle, the bears burn down Wall Street and waste no time taking prisoners. Fear leads to panic and panic leads to selling and we're seeing that shock and awe on a daily basis. Once again the ultrashort ETFs (SKF, SJH, SJF, SSG, SRS, FXP, TWM, SEF, etc.) were today's big winners. The S&P 500 has now dropped -14.5% over the past five sessions and is down -32.2% this year. In fact, the Dow dropped 508 points today which is also the exact same number of points lost back on October 19, 1987. Does anyone think that's just a mere coincidence? I don't think so. [READ]

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